- 學位論文
跨國性共同趨勢與不動產有效稅率對房價影響之研究
A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON THE EFFECTS OF INTERNATIONAL COMMON TREND AND EFFECTATIVE PROPERTY TAX RATE ON HOUSE PRICE
摘要
本文假定各國不動產價格受到跨國性共同隨機趨勢所影響，利用狀態空間模型估計1991年第一季到2009年第四季美國、英國、加拿大、台灣、香港五個國家造成不動產景氣循環的共同隨機趨勢，並加入不動產有效稅率、每人實質國內生產毛額、利率三個影響住宅價格的因子，運用卡門濾波法的最大概似法估計出共同隨機趨勢以及三個國內因子對房價的影響係數，再利用變異數分解得到四個變數占房價變動之比率，用此解釋各國住宅市場的開放程度。其中歐美區美國共同趨勢占房價變動37.44%，加拿大為0.72%，英國為9.86%；亞州區台灣共同趨勢占房價變動的2.72%，香港為10.52%。其中美國住宅市場受區域景氣波動影響最大，主要原因應是來自美國住宅市場投資行為較熱絡且開放程度較大的關係。 此外，另外一個討論的重點即為各國不動產有效稅率的比較，本文蒐集了各國財政資料計算出各國不動產有效稅率的歷史趨勢，其中台灣及香港的不動產有效稅率比歐美三國低了二至十倍，當中可能隱含亞洲區不動產持有稅賦成本偏低的問題。不動產有效稅率的平均值高低依序為美國、加拿大、英國、台灣、及香港。而在估計結果中不動產有效稅率對房價的影響係數值分別為-0.0317，-0.1767，-0.4979，-0.8459，-2.5012。可得知不動產有效稅率越低的國家，若能藉由稅基的提升進而提高有效稅率，對於房價的抑制效果較大。
並列摘要
In this paper, we assumed that the property price of each nation are in correlation with the common stochastic trend, and that common stochastic trend will have a clear effect on the property price of each nation. By utilizing state space model to analyze the common stochastic trend which drive the property business cycle in a nation. The sample countries include US, UK, Canada, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The analysis taking into account of three main factors that have influence over housing price: effectative property tax rate, real GDP, and interest rate. Using the Kalmans filter, we could derive the impact level on the housing price of each factor including common stochastic trend. The outcome of the previous analysis was put into to a second examination. The impact level of all four variables were evaluate by the variance decomposition which yielded the ratio of effectiveness of each variable. The ratio which is the core idea of this paper is the main instrument to explain the degree of openness and limitation of each nation. Under the scrutiny, the ratio of common trend in western countries are US 37.44%, Canada 0.72%, and 9.86% in UK. In the Asian market, Taiwan has the ratio of 2.72%, and 10.52% in Hong Kong. It is noticeable that US has a significant ratio than other four countries, we presume this is the effect of having a more active housing market and with a lesser restriction. In addition, the other focusing point of this paper are the comparison of these five nation’s effectative property tax rate. By calculating the financial data of each nation, this article has point out the historical trend of the effectative property tax rate in each nation, which indicate that the of Asian countries are lower than western nations by 200% to 1000%. The result of this might suggest the problem of low tax cost of real state holding in Asian sector. The ranking of average effectative property tax rate with first being the highest are: 1. US 2. Canada 3. UK 4. Taiwan 5. Hong Kong. If we exploring the result of effectative property tax rate in the previous analysis we will learned that the impact level are: US -0.0317, Canada -0.1767, UK -0.4979, Taiwan -0.8459, and Hong Kong -2.5012. with these finding, we could safely assumed that the lower of a nation’s effectative property tax rate, the more effective of housing price suppression by raising the effectative property tax rate.