- 學位論文
臺灣勞工保險改制年金給付對家戶儲蓄之影響
The Impact on Household Savings of Annuitizing the Labor Pension Payment in Taiwan
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摘要
隨著國家社會福利制度逐漸完善，臺灣快速的人口老化將對政府造成龐大的財政負擔，勢必要進行一系列退休金制度改革。本文仿效Attanasio、Rohwedder（2003）、Attanasio、Brugiavini（2003）兩篇文章所用之經濟理論及實證方法，研究我國社會安全制度中的社會保險政策對於勞工家戶儲蓄之影響，尤其針對勞工保險制度之老年給付調整為年金給付之改革加以探討。依據生命循環假說，我國勞保年金改制，將使消費者之儲蓄減少，本文主旨便在以個體資料驗證此論述。本研究使用勞保改制前後2006年、2008年、2010年、2012年之家庭收支調查個體樣本，建構擬似追蹤資料，以差異中之差異法進行迴歸分析，發現教育程度、預期薪資折現期望值對資料年度薪資比值、投保身分別、資料年度、性別等變數，對於個體儲蓄率之變動都有相當高的解釋力。而就本研究之個體樣本迴歸結果，並未具有足夠之信心，認為當我國勞工之儲蓄率受到2009年度勞工保險老年給付改制之影響。
並列摘要
With the gradual improvement of the national social security system, the rapid population aging will cause a huge financial burden on the government. So it is bound to carry out a series of pension system reform in Taiwan. This paper learned and emulated the economic theory and empirical methods used in Attanasio & Rohwedder (2003), Attanasio & Brugiavini (2003) two papers, and research the impact on household saving of annuitizing the labor pension payment in Taiwan. The research aimed to use the individual data to verify the point that according to Life Cycle Hypothesis, the reform of labor pension will enable consumers to reduce their savings. In this paper, we use the individual samples from the Survey of Family Income and Expenditure in 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012 around the restructuring of social labor insurance in Taiwan, to construct the pseudo panel data to analysis the thesis in Difference-in-differences method. It found that education level, discount of expected future earnings, and some category variances, such as insurance, the year of data and sex will impact people’s savings with high significant level. But there is not enough confidence to claim that there is the impact on household savings of annuitizing the labor pension payment in Taiwan.
參考文獻
辛炳隆, 何金巡, 林建甫, & 周麗芳. (2009). 臺灣勞保年金制度的總體經濟計量分析. 臺灣經濟預測與政策, 頁 127-179.
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Attanasio, P. O., & Brugiavini, A. (2003). Social Security and Households' Saving. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, pp. 1075-1119.