臺灣少子女化之因素探討與因應對策研擬

A Study on Exploring Factors for Fertility Decline and Policy Response in Taiwan

林彥甫(Yen-Fu Lin)

指導教授 ： 錢玉蘭

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2015年)

摘要

隨著環境永續的意識抬頭，人口成長導致環境負載力增加的議題逐漸受到重視，促使各國追求人口結構的平衡。我國自第二次世界大戰至今，幾十年來歷經了人口轉型，根據內政部於2013年的人口政策白皮書指出，臺灣人口趨勢從高出生率、高死亡率逐漸轉變為低出生率、低死亡率，進而導致少子女化及高齡化現象。2003年臺灣總生育率為1.235，正式成為「超低生育率」國家，十年來生育率持續呈現下滑趨勢；2009年總生育率降為1.03，創下全球首度生育率最低水準，隔年更是降到0.895的新低點。若臺灣持續朝向如此的人口趨勢，不但會造成勞動力萎縮，亦會對教育體制、國家財政等產生衝擊。
出生率降低是普遍的趨勢，許多已開發國家紛紛制定政策來因應並獲得成效，但臺灣鼓勵生育措施的成效甚微，值得進一步研究，並探究影響生育的因素。本研究首先回顧相關文獻，從中歸納影響生育之因素，進一步透過政府「婦女婚育與就業調查」問卷資料進行實證的迴歸分析，瞭解各因素的影響程度，最後根據實證結果發現，初婚年齡、理想子女數、家庭收入、家務時數、工作時數確實影響生育，因此提出鼓勵適齡結婚、營造友善的家庭與職場環境、提供適當的經濟誘因、提升養育子女價值觀等四點政策建議以促進生育。

關鍵字

迴歸分析 ； 超低生育率 ； 少子女化

並列摘要

Since the Industrial Revolution, human developments have gradually brought the earth toward exceeding its carrying capacity. After the World War II, like many countries Taiwan went through the demographic transition for decades. According to the Population Policy White Paper 2013 published by Taiwan’s Ministry of the Interior, Taiwan's population trend was from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality. Taiwan's total fertility rate in 2003 was 1.235 and became a "low fertility" country, in 2009 even dropped to 1.03 and made Taiwan have the lowest fertility in the world, 2010 continued to drop to 0.895. This demographic trend has already made politicians and the general public worry it will not only shrink the labor force but also put stress on the education system, the state finance, and even the industrial structure.
Low fertility rate is a general trend in the world. In order to elevate TFR, many developed countries have made policy to cope with it and had good success. On the contrary, there is little success in Taiwan. It is worthy of further study and focusing on the determinant factors of declining birth rate. Firstly, this master thesis makes a review of research and generalizes the determinant factors of declining birth rate. Secondly, in order to realize the effect of various factors, regression analysis and "Women’s Marriage, Fertility and Employment" questionnaire data is used. Lastly, based on the results, age at first marriage, ideal number of children, family income, hours of household work, working hours truly affect fertility.Thus, this study makes four recommendations for improvement according to the results, including the encouragement for marriage at the right age, creating the families and working places friendly environment, providing appropriate economic incentives, and enhancing the value of raising children.

並列關鍵字

regression analysis ； lowest-low fertility ； fertility decline

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