台灣地區住宅與服務業電力服務需求與節能潛力之研究

The Study on Electricity Service Demand and Potential of Energy Saving in Taiwan Residential and Service Sector

蔡妙姍(Miao-Shan Tsai)

指導教授 ： 張四立

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/博士(2015年)

摘要

IPCC第五次綜合報告(2014年)指出，若無減緩溫室氣體排放行為，大氣中二氧化碳等主要溫室氣體濃度，預計造成21世紀末全球平均氣溫提高4℃。經濟和人口成長造成的人為溫室氣體排放為氣候暖化的主要原因。聯合國氣候變化綱要公約(UNFCCC)努力促使公約締約方於2015年協議通過2020年之後約束排放的法律架構-國家自定預期貢獻(Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDC)，達成全球溫升2℃以下之目標。
最終能源需求部門包括工業、住宅、服務業、運輸及農業等部門，住宅與服務業部門成長速度僅次於工業部門，但政府此二部門規劃的節能措施效果不高，本論文針對住宅與服務業部門進行節電潛力評估。為評估國內住宅與服務業部門節能潛力，需先掌握前述二個部門能源需求量，再進行減碳策略效果與成本評估。國際文獻推估住宅與服務業部門電力需求考量的因素包括經濟面、社會面、環境面或技術面因素，評估模型包括經濟模型、能源工程模型及計量方法。實施的節能策略計有最低能效標準/標章制度、建築能源認證計畫/標章、高效率設備租稅減免及高效率設備研發等。
節能減碳是一個長期且不確定的行動，因其受行為、經濟、技術及環境的影響，它是具有動態和時間遞延的特性，也具有循環性和空間性的特點，本論文以系統模型建置住宅與服務業電力需求推估模型，運用家計生產函數理論與廠商生產函數理論建立前述模型中相關變數推估之理論基礎，電力需求模型之參數考量社會面(人口數)、經濟面(營業所得與能源價格)、技術面(設備種類與效率)及環境面(氣溫)，並納入智慧電表的技術學習效果，使用的資料為本論文進行全國住宅抽樣面訪問卷資料和能源局非生產性質行業能源用戶節約能源查核資料，模擬未來台灣2030年用電設備更換、建築改善、電價調整和能源管理的節電措施效果。
研究結果顯示，以設備減碳成本而言，設備平均減碳成本逐年遞減。住宅冰箱設備平均減碳成本高於照明和空調設備。住商部門建物屋齡和建材、地理位置與氣候的狀況皆為建築能耗重要影響因素，但不同的建築改善措施之減碳成本差異大，如綠屋頂的平均減碳成本低於窗戶玻璃更新和建築外殼改善的平均減碳成本。以部門平均減碳成本而言，服務業設備裝置成本較住宅設備成本高但其減碳量較大。以減碳措施方案而言，住宅部門電價調整方案減碳成本最低但減碳潛力不高；效率提昇方案的減碳成本最高但減碳潛力最大；能源管理系統方案雖減碳潛力低於節能窗戶、建築隔熱及效率提昇方案，但減碳成本低於前三方案；服務業亦有相類似的結果，若能加速智慧型電表基礎建設(Advanced Metering Infrastructure, AMI)以提高智慧電表裝設率，對於住宅與服務業部門減碳相當有助益。以減碳策略效果觀之，電價調整及能源管理屬於減碳無悔政策。
未來亦應進行環境-調適-減緩之間相互影響，如開啟空調的室內溫度、空調設定溫度及環境氣溫改變之間的關係，評估結合氣候變化減緩和調適策略。

關鍵字

電力服務需求 ； 住宅與服務業部門 ； 節能潛力

並列摘要

The Synthesis Report (2014) of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report pointed out that without additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, global warming is more likely than not to exceed 4℃ above pre-industrial levels by 2100, and that increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have been driven mainly by economic and population growth. In order to limit global warming to below 2℃ relative to pre-industrial levels, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited parties to submit their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), to outline the post-2020 climate actions they intend to take under a new international agreement expected to be adopted near the end of 2015.
The sectoral breakdown of final energy consumption typically includes industry, transport, households, services, etc., while the scope of this study covers only the households/residential and service sectors. To assess the carbon reduction potentials of Taiwan’s domestic residential and service sectors, it is necessary to first determine the energy demands for both sectors, then assess the costs and effects of their potential carbon reduction strategies. Based on a thorough review of international literature, the major factors considered while estimating electricity demands of residential and service sectors include economic, social, technical and environmental factors; while models adopted for evaluation include economic models, energy engineering models and econometric methods. Implemented carbon reduction strategies often involved minimum energy efficiency standards/labeling schemes, building energy certification/labeling programs, high-efficiency equipment tax incentives, and high-efficiency equipment research and development activities.
In this study, the systematic model was used to establish electricity demand model of residential and service sectors, with the household production function theory and manufacturer production function theory serving as the theoretical basis for estimating relevant variables considered by the model. Variables considered by the electricity demand model cover the social (number and composition of the population), economic (business incomes and energy prices), technical (equipment types and efficiency), and environmental (temperature) aspects, as well as the learning results of the “artificial intelligence metering (AIM)” technology theory. Data used in this study include data from the energy consumption survey on Taiwan’s residents conducted by this study, and annual report of energy audit for non-manufacturing industries published by the Bureau of Energy of the Ministry of Economic Affairs. These data were used to simulate the effects of equipment replacement, building improvements, and air temperature change in 2030 due to the implementation of carbon mitigation strategies.
The study results showed that for the costs of carbon reduction equipment, the average equipment costs decrease with the decline in equipment investment cost year over year, with the costs lower for higher installation rate; and the costs higher for residential refrigeration equipment versus lighting and air conditioning equipment. The age of residential buildings as well as building materials, geographic locations and weather conditions are all important factors affecting buildings’ energy consumption. But the cost of carbon reductions vary greatly among different building improvement measures, for example, green roofs has an average carbon reduction cost lower than window renovations or improvement projects for building envelop. For average sectoral carbon reduction cost, the equipment installation costs for the service sector are typically higher than the costs of residential equipment, though with higher amount of reduced carbon. Regarding carbon reduction and measures/programs, the residential sector’s electricity tariff adjustment program has the lowest carbon reduction cost, but also low carbon reduction potential; the energy efficiency improvement program has both the highest carbon reduction cost and the highest carbon reduction potential; and the energy management system has a carbon reduction potential lower than energy saving windows, building insulation and efficiency enhancement program, as well as lower carbon reduction costs. For the service sector, similar results can also be observed. Moreover, the accelerated deployment of the AIM system can benefit the carbon reduction progress for both the residential and service sector. Regarding the effect of carbon reduction strategies, the electricity tariff adjustment scheme and energy management measures can both be considered no-regret policies.
Subsequent studies will focus on the relationships between environment, mitigation and adaptation. For example, the interactions between room temperature of air-conditioned rooms, temperature settings of air conditioners and changes in ambient air temperature, in order to assess the effects of integrating climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.

並列關鍵字

Electricity services demand ； residential and service sector ； Energy Saving Potential

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