台灣的經濟成長一直依賴出口貿易作為主要動力,惟在1980年代中期後,國內廠商為了因應環境變遷或是尋求新的市場,紛紛前往海外進行投資設廠,因此台商對外投資對於出口貿易的影響一直受到廣泛的注意,究竟對外投資與出口貿易之間的關係為替代或是互補?對不同類型的產業是否造成不同的影響? 本文以引力模型分析台灣製造業自1998至2007年間對外投資與出口貿易之間的關係,並採用追蹤資料(Panel Data)分析法中的隨機效果進行分析,除了針對不同產業特性外,更以不同型態對外投資對於我國出口貿易的影響作一番檢視。研究結果發現:(1)雙邊國家的GDP乘積和工資對於出口貿易的影響為正向,人口數乘積與距離則不利於出口貿易的發展,但此四變數對於投資的影響卻恰好相反。(2)同屬於中國與東南亞地區對於出口貿易和投資皆為正面的影響,顯示語言文化與我國相似確實有助於我國出口貿易和廠商海外投資的發展。(3)整體製造業對外投資和出口貿易之間的關係為互補,顯示我國製造業進行海外投資設廠有助於出口貿易的發展。在區分產業型態及投資型態後,各產業不論是進行「防禦性投資」或是「擴張性投資」仍多得到互補的結果,惟性質較為內需型的民生產業出現替代的可能。
The economic growth of Taiwan always depends on export trade. However, since the middle period of 1980 times, our manufacturers have gradually invested abroad and set up plants for the shift of local circumstances or the development of foreign markets. Its effect on the export trade has drawn widely attention. This study is to concern whether outward FDI and export trade are substitutes or complements and whether there are differences among different sectors. Our study uses gravity model to explore the relation between FDI and export trade during 1998 to 2007. With random effects for the panel data, we examine the relation at sectoral and motive level, and have some important conclusions. First, we find that GDP and wage have positive signs for export, but the population and distance do not. On the other hand, they have the reverse effects on FDI. Secondly, the CH and ASEAN dummy variables have positive signs for both export and FDI. Thirdly, FDI and export have a positive relation, except for the civil industry, implying that our FDI for both defensive FDI and expansionary FDI could stimulate export.