東協加三自由貿易影響之可計算一般均衡分析：勞動市場設定之觀點

A CGE-Analysis on ASEAN + 3 FTA: The Perspective of Labor Market Specification

羅曉蔚(Shiao-Wei Lo)

指導教授 ： 李叢禎

國立臺北大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

在世界貿易組織(WTO) 杜哈回合談判停滯不前受阻後，多邊貿易體系遇到了空前的困難，因此許多國家開始尋求雙邊貿易協定或是區域貿易協定。1997年亞洲金融風暴後，東亞國家體認到區域合作的必要性，但由於亞太經貿合作會議(APEC)在風暴中沒有任何作為，因此促使東亞國家尋求另一區域組織--東南亞國家協會(簡稱東協，ASEAN)的合作。
東協於1967年建立，致力於促進區域和平與經濟發展，目前為亞洲地區最有制度的區域組織。東協國家於2004年建立東協自由貿易區，並積極與非東協國家簽署雙邊自由貿易協定。由於這些洽談中的雙邊自由貿易協定之參與國家中，包含了中國、日本與韓國等三個具有影響力的東亞國家(簡稱東協加三)，因此頗受各界關注。在相關文獻中，多數採用可計算一般均衡(computable general equilibrium, CGE)模型作為東協加三的經濟影響評估分析工具，且研究重點主要為國內生產毛額與福利變化。由於勞動市場的設定會影響模擬結果，又伴隨貿易的改革，勞動市場也會有所變化，而其變化也會影響自由貿易的結果。然而在這些研究東協加三貿易協定的CGE分析中，鮮少有文章針對勞動市場做詳細的探討，主要的原因可能為多數模擬自由貿易政策的研究，係採用假設勞動市場充分就業、勞工可跨部門完全移動的標準CGE模型。因此在此標準CGE模型下，無法探討失業率，也無法針對勞動市場的設定(就業市場狀態、要素的跨部門移動性)來探討對自由貿易結果的影響。然而，在現實中，失業的現象是很普遍的，不管是自願性的或非自願的。此外，消弭貿易扭曲的政策雖可使得會員國可以根據競爭優勢更有效率的配置資源，但是勞動要素的跨部門移動性會影響勞動資源的配置，進而影響產出。再者，貿易自由化會改變勞動需求，不同產業之勞動需求互有增減。若某產業因而存有過多的失業，除了會影響產出外，可能會有社會問題的產生，對國家的經濟發展亦有很大的影響。因此，在貿易自由化的議題上有必要對勞動市場的設定與結果進行探討。
本論文採用全球多部門CGE模型─全球貿易分析模型(Global Trade Analysis Project, GTAP)進行東協加三自由貿易的模擬分析。但由於東協加三目前並未達到整體共識，而是這三國有各自與東協形成雙邊自由貿易的情況，目前東協-中國自由貿易協定已正式生效，故本文將其作為校準情境，並對兩個可能的自由貿易協定 (東協-日本、東協-韓國)進行研究。為了探討勞動市場的設定對自由貿易的影響，本論文設立了四種比較情境，包括：情境一、使用標準GTAP模型，假設勞動市場充分就業、勞工可跨部門完全移動；情境二、假設勞動市場充分就業，勞工完全不可跨部門移動；情境三、納入工資僵固性的假設，以呈現勞動市場存有失業的現象，且假設勞工可跨部門完全移動；情境四、假設勞動市場有失業的現象，而勞工完全不可跨部門移動。
模擬結果顯示這四種情境設定對自由貿易的結果有明顯的影響。大體而言，第三個情境有最好的結果。因為此情境同時反映就業增加與資源配置效率提升的效果，故產出與福利效果較為顯著。主要的總體經濟結果為：(1)會員國間的貿易流量會明顯增加，雙邊貿易障礙的移除提供會員國在生產與出口上很大的誘因；(2)東協-日本、東協-韓國FTA會增加會員國的實質國民生產毛額與福利，但會減少其他東亞國家的實質國民生產毛額與福利，而對非東亞國家則沒有特定的影響；(3)在東協-日本自由貿易協定下，東協與日本的技術及非技術勞工的就業皆會增加。反之，在東協-韓國自由貿易協定下，韓國的技術與非技術勞工及東協的非技術勞工之就業皆增加，但東協的技術勞工之就業則是減少。

關鍵字

東協自由貿易；一般均衡分析

並列摘要

The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been currently engaged in forming bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) with non-ASEAN members. The ASEAN+3 proposal, an FTA with ASEAN, China, Japan and Korea, is particularly drawing great attention in Asia and the world, because of its economic power and influence. The current study evaluates the economy-wide impacts of ASEAN+3 mainly using a standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, which is under the assumption of perfect competition, full employment and perfect labor mobility. Therefore, no employment or labor issues can be addressed from this standard CGE model. However, the unemployment issue is closely related to economic development, and the reaction of the labor market to an exogenous shock has significant impacts on the outcome of the trade liberalization. Hence, a proper representation of the labor market in CGE models is important.

Since ASEAN+3 does not reach any clear conclusion, the three countries start to form FTAs with ASEAN separately, namely, ASEAN-China FTA, ASEAN-Japan FTA and ASEAN-Korea FTA. In this thesis, an applied CGE model, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, is employed to simulate the impacts of this alternative ASEAN+3. Because this thesis aims to highlight the role of labor market closure in assessing the impacts of an FTA, we design four simulation scenarios to compare the results and explain the influence of these different assumptions on the labor market. All simulation scenarios are explored in the standard GTAP model. The differences between the models lie in the model closure and the parameter of the labor mobility. The first simulation scenario uses a full employment closure with perfect labor mobility parameter settings. The second simulation scenario uses a full employment closure with labor immobility parameter settings. The third simulation scenario employs an unemployment closure with perfect labor mobility parameter settings. The forth simulation scenario employs an unemployment closure with labor immobility parameter settings.

Simulation results show that the four simulation scenarios have quite different results. Generally, the third scenario would have the most appealing results, since this scenario can consider the effect of unemployed labor employed by industry in the event of an expansion of production, and can have better resource allocation for the perfect labor mobility assumption.

The main results of this thesis are summarized as follows. The bilateral trade liberalization increases trade activity between member countries because the removal of bilateral tariffs on both sides of the border offers strong incentive for member countries to boost their exports and production. The trade liberalization will improve the member countries’ real GDP and welfare, while the non-member countries in East Asia would suffer economic loss. For example, the East Asian countries, China, Korea and Taiwan would suffer a real GDP loss and welfare decrease in all scenarios under the ASEAN-Japan FTA, and China, Japan and Taiwan would experience a decline in real GDP and welfare in all scenarios under the ASEAN-Korea FTA. Other non-member countries do not have a specific variation pattern under an FTA. Regarding the unemployment results, the ASEAN-Japan FTA would create more jobs for both skilled and unskilled labor in ASEAN and Japan. The ASEAN-Korea FTA would create more jobs for both skilled and unskilled labor in Korea as well as for unskilled labor in ASEAN, while the skilled labor in ASEAN would have fewer job opportunities.

並列關鍵字

ASEAN ； CGE

參考文獻

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