探討人均GDP對碳排放量之直接與間接影響研究─以歐盟27國為例

The Direct And Undirect Effects Of Gdp Per Capita And Carbon Emissions- A Case Study For Eu27

邱郁雯(Yu-wen Chiu)

指導教授 ： 陳宥杉

國立臺北大學/商學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

本研究以1993-2009年歐盟27個國家的縱衡資料，檢驗經濟發展、人口總量與再生電力與碳排放量之關係，研究結果顯示經濟發展與碳排放量呈現正相關，但上升速度於人均GDP百分比22%處慢慢緩和。顯示碳排放量在人均GDP逐漸上升之後，污染的程度有減慢之現象。人口總數與人均碳排放量呈現一上升後逐漸不變甚至下降之關係。其可能原因為歐盟為已開發國家，人口成長的過程中，碳排放量控制甚至減量的重要性漸漸被發現，更為環保的生活方式也逐漸被人們採納。再生電力與人均碳排量呈現負相關，顯示再生電力能帶動更環保的生活方式，間接使人均碳排放量減少。本研究也發現個別國家對人均碳排放量之個別效果以法國、德國、義大利、英國對碳排放量之負向影響為最高。另外加入人口總數為門檻變數，透過門檻迴歸發現，人口總數確實影響經濟發展對碳排放量的非線性關係，而且產生兩個門檻與三個區間。本研究另以歐盟再生電力為應變數，探討人均GDP與能源強度與再生電力之關係。研究顯示隨著人均GDP的上升，再生電力的使用率逐漸增加。另外能源強度與再生電力之關係為負相關，這顯示能源強度越低，再生電力使用越高。另外，本研究也發現人均GDP對於人均碳排放量有直接正向效果，但另一方面，人均GDP也對再生電力有正向效果。但是，再生電力對人均碳排量為負相關，因此，若人均GDP對再生電力有直接正向效果，則GDP對碳排放量會有間接負向效果。顯示經濟發展不必然對環境造成汙染，若將經濟發展應用在再生能源等綠色產業，則有助於碳排放的減少。

關鍵字

人均GDP ； 碳排放量 ； 再生電力 ； 環境kuznet curve

並列摘要

This study examined the effect of economic development, population and renewable electricity on carbon emissions by using the panel data of EU 27 countries from 1993 to 2009. The results showed that economic development had a positive influence upon the carbon emissions, but the rate of increase became slow at 22% of GDP per capita. Population and carbon emissions had a relationship that gradually rose, then unchanged, and finally declined. The possible reasons were that in the developed countries, people realized the importance of carbon pollution control and reduction, and the lifestyle more environmentally has gradually been adopted. And renewable electricity had a negative influence upon the carbon emissions; it showed renewable electricity drive a greener lifestyle, thus, the carbon emissions reduction indirectly. This study also showed that France, Germany, Italy and UK had the greatest positive impact on carbon emissions. This study use threshold　 regression　 to found　 the 　 threshold, the result showed population does affect the relationship of economic development and carbon emissions; there are two thresholds, three regions., EU renewable electricity also be used for dependent variable in the other part of this study, study shows that economic development had a positive influence upon the renewable electricity and energy intensity had a negative influence upon the renewable electricity. It revealed that the lower energy intensity, the higher renewable electricity using. In this paper, GDP per capita had been independent variable in both two part of this study. The results showed that economic development has a direct positive influence and an indirect negative influence upon the carbon emissions. Among the variables, renewable electricity has a negative influence upon the carbon emissions. Therefore, if the GDP per capita has a direct positive influence upon the carbon emissions, GDP per capita has a direct negative influence upon carbon emissions. It showed that if economic development is helpful to green industries, it contribute to the reduction of carbon emissions.

並列關鍵字

GDP per capita ； Carbon Emissions ； Renewable Electricity ； Environmental Kuznets Curve

參考文獻

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