探討經濟發展、人口總量與發電量對碳排放量之影響

本研究以1980-2009年全球130個國家的縱衡資料，檢驗經濟發展、人口總量與發電量對碳排放量之影響，比較普通最小平方法、固定效果與隨機效果迴歸模型後選出最適模型假設，研究結果顯示人口總量對碳排放量的正向影響最大。且透過門檻迴歸可以發現，發電量與人口總量確實影響經濟發展對碳排放量的非線性關係。另一方面，經濟發展與碳排放量有倒U字型曲線的關係，符合環境Kuznets曲線（EKC）的假說。本研究比較全球與美國環境Kuznets曲線的反折點分別為每人平均GDP$63800與$30700，相較之下美國較容易透過經濟發展使碳排放量有效趨緩；然而，探究其原因是貿易自由化加上美國企業的全球分工策略使然。而美國目前處於EKC的右端，其發電能源仍然是相當依賴化石燃料發電，唯獨石油發電逐漸式微，原因為除了本身發電效能較差與石油產品種類眾多外，本研究發現再生能源發電與石油發電具排擠效果；因此政府可以透過再生能源發電廠替代石油發電廠，並配合更有效的定價策略，才能有效抑制對化石燃料的需求。

關鍵字

碳排放量；化石燃料；環境Kuznets曲線

並列摘要

This study examined the effect of economic development, population and power generation on carbon emissions by using the panel data of 130 countries worldwide from 1980 to 2009. And we compared ordinary least squares, fixed effects model and random effects model, in order to select the optimum model. The results showed that population had the greatest positive impact on carbon emissions. On the other hand, the economic development and carbon emissions had the relationship of inverted-U hypothesis, which was consistent with Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC). After compared the inflection point of EKC between the whole world and the United States of America, this study found that the GDP for per person of the world and the United States of America were $63800 and $30700 individually. It indicated that the United States was easier to slow carbon emissions effectively through the economic development. However, this result could be explained by the trade liberalization and the global division of labor of The United States. Besides, the United States of America were at the position of the right side of EKC, which implying the USA was still depend on fossil fuel to generate power. Only the usage of petroleum was declining, which could be explained by three reasons: the poor performance of petroleum, lots purposes of consumption of petroleum products, and the crowding-out effects between the power generation of renewable energy and petroleum. Hence, the government could replace the power station of petroleum with the power station of renewable energy, and adopt more effective pricing strategy to control the demand of fossil fuel.

並列關鍵字

Carbon emissions ； Fossil fuel ； Environmental Kuznets Curve

參考文獻

1. Aslanidis, N. and Iranzo, S. (2009). Environment and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for CO2 Emissions? Applied Economics, 41(6), 803-810.

2. Beckerman, W. (1992). Economic Growth and the Environment: Whose Growth? Whose Environment? World Development., 20, 481–496.

4. Bongaarts, J., O’Neill, B. C., and Gaffin, S. R. (1997). Global Warming Policy: Population Left Out in the Cold. Environment, 39( 9), 40-41.

5. Charles, B. L. (1991). Cointegration and Causality between Energy Consump tion and GDP. Energy Economics, 8, 61- 68

7. Cramer, W., Bondeau, A., Woodward, F. I., Prentice, I. C., Betts, R. A., Brovkin, V., Cox, P. M., Fisher, V., Foley, J. A., Friend, A. D., Kucharik, C., Lomas, M. R., Ramankutty, N., Sitch, S., Smith, B., White, A., and Molling, C. Y. (2001). Global Response of Terrestrial Ecosystem Structure and Function to CO2 and Climate Change: Results From Six Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. Global Change Biology, 7, 357-373.

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探討經濟發展、人口總量與發電量對碳排放量之影響

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