以資料包絡分析法分析輪胎廠商之經營效率

A Study of Operational Performance of the Tyre Companies in Taiwan Using DEA

鄒應玉(Ying-yu Tsou)

指導教授 ： 古永嘉

共同指導教授 ： 呂姿瑩

國立臺北大學/商學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2013年)

摘要

面對歐債危機的影響下，全球景氣成長觀點出現向下修正的趨勢。值此時點，台灣輪胎產業對於國際總體經濟惡化與貿易限制的應變機制與經營能力，確有探討與檢視的必要性。在此前提下，本研究旨在針對台灣輪胎產業經營效率進行分析比較，提出決策制定建議。
本研究選擇2000~2011年的台灣目前上市櫃輪胎廠商財務資訊為樣本，以資料包絡分析法(DEA)、生產力變動分析法(MPI)、Tobit迴歸分析等三階段效率分析模式，探討其經營效率之相對排名與差異。本研究的結論如下:
一、BCC效率分析顯示，正新的經營效率表現較優。
二、在投入導向前提下，兩期間之生產技術變動率退步現象代表廠商當年的成本效率較前一年為退步，亦即管理效率無法因應產業波動而發揮效果。針對2000年至2011年期間總效率值與投入變數的關係方面，營業成本率每增加1%，則總效率值下降1.38%；而營業費用率每增加1%，則總效率值下降1.73%。
三、就管理意涵方面，輪胎產業的擴廠計劃的決策速度至關重要。就目前產業所面臨處境而言，面對中美貿易戰的因應策略必須快速反應，其中配置效率反映輪胎廠商針對大陸廠的規模與台灣建廠的規模之決策效率，以及反映研發人員、行銷團隊、產線人員的比例配置，技術管理效率反映輪胎廠商的產能利用率與生產管理效率，兩者反映於總效率。依據表4-11數據，當總效率成長1%，營業毛利率增加0.36%，營業利益率成長0.36%，則總資產酬率成長0.5402%，每股盈餘成長0.48%，淨值報酬率成長0.47%。

關鍵字

資料包絡分析法 ； 生產力變動分析法 ； Tobit迴歸分析 ； 總效率 ； 技術效率 ； 規模效率

並列摘要

With the impact of European debt crisis, there will be downgrade correction on the global economic growth. Meanwhile, it’s necessary to review the capability of dealing with global economic slump and USA-China trade conflicts.Under these premises, this study is aimed to analyze the operating efficiency of Taiwan tier industry,providing strategy-making suggestions.
This study selects the financial datas of five public companies in Taiwan tier industry for the three stages of efficiency analysis, including DEA, Malmquist production index, Tobit regression.After the analysis, this study concludes following points.
Firstly, according to BCC-based DEA model, the operating performances of Cheng Shin Tier are ranked as the first-leading position, followed by the second-best group composed by NanKang and Kenda Rubber. Federal and Hwa Fong Rubber belong to underperforming group.
Secondly, under the input-oriented DEA analysis, the lag of cross-period technology efficiency demonstrated the retrogression on the cost efficiency, meaning the managing efficiency not matching up with the industrial fluctuation. As far as the linkage between scale efficiency and input varuables are concerned, the increase of 1% on operating cost will lead to the decrease of 1.38% on total efficiency, whereas the increase of 1% on operating expense will decrease the 1.73% of total efficiency.
Thirdly, as far as the singals of management are concerned, the plan for enlarging production capability is crucial for tier manufacturers. Under the surrounding around tier industry, it’s necessary to rapidly respond to the US-China trade war. Allocation efficiency results from the efficiency of strategy-making decision on capex, and the allocation among research team, marketing team and manufacturing workers. Technology efficiency results from the utility rate and the efficiency of production management. Allocation efficiency and technology efficiency jointly generate the total efficiency. According to the data of table 4-11, the increase of 1% on total efficiency will generate the increase of 0.36% on margin and operating margin respectively, which will contribute to the growth of 0.5402% on return on total assets, the growth of 0.48% on EPS, and the growth of 0.47% on return on equity.

並列關鍵字

DEA ； Malmquist production index ； Tobit regression ； Total efficiency ； Technology efficiency ； Scale efficiency

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