- 學位論文
罪惡不能侵擾之蒂─臺灣低犯罪率鄉鎮市區影響因素之研究
The Earth Not Obsessed with Crime─Low Crime Rate Study in Taiwan`s Townships, Cities and Districts.
摘要
本研究試圖尋找臺灣治安良好、低犯罪率地區的特徵因子，作為我們國家發展及預防犯罪的依據，並分別探討影響「強盜搶奪」、「汽車竊盜」、「機車竊盜」、「住宅竊盜」及「毒品」等犯罪類型之因素及路徑，期能提供治安決策、比較犯罪類型之參考。 透過社會解組理論、日常活動理論及社會控制理論建構研究架構與假設，認為一地區雖存在社會解組現象，或具備日常活動犯罪機會，透過非正式社會控制規範、凝聚力與信任感，發揮集體效能，即能預防並降低犯罪發生。 研究中先以集群分析界定出臺灣低犯罪率239個鄉鎮市區，再以行政院主計處、內政部統計處、刑事警察局等官方次級資料進行路徑等實證分析，獲至結果如下： 第一、正如Clinard, M. B.(1978)指出，經濟好壞及貧窮程度並非影響犯罪與否之因素。 第二、以Clinar, M. B.(1978)比較犯罪學的方法，找出臺灣低犯罪率鄉鎮市區之特色及影響因素為：每萬青少年擁有學校數較多、每萬人社區發展協會數較多、離婚率較低、社會增加率較低、低收入戶戶數比較高、人口異質性較低、常住人口數較少、戶內人口數較多、已婚婦女就業率較高，而地價指數未必較低等。 第三、臺灣低犯罪率鄉鎮市區影響路徑為： (一)降低「離婚率」，可使「每萬人社區發展協會數」增加，進一步降低「汽車竊盜犯罪率」。 (二)雖多「人口遷出」，但可間接透過「每萬青少年擁有學校數」的增加，降低「強盜搶奪犯罪率」、「機車竊盜犯罪率」、「住宅竊盜犯罪率」及「毒品犯罪率」。 (三)增加的「低收入戶數比」，能增加被解釋的「每萬青少年擁有學校數」，間接降低「強盜搶奪犯罪率」、「機車竊盜犯罪率」、「住宅竊盜犯罪率」及「毒品犯罪率」。 (四)「人口異質性」降低，可使「每萬青少年擁有學校數」增加，間接降低「強盜搶奪犯罪率」、「機車竊盜犯罪率」、「住宅竊盜犯罪率」及「毒品犯罪率」；另透過較高的「每萬人社區發展協會數」，凝聚信任感、守望相助，營造集體效能，可以間接降低「汽車竊盜犯罪率」。 (五)「人口密度」降低，可直接降低「強盜搶奪犯罪率」及「機車竊盜犯罪率」。 (六)常住人口數降低時可以直接降低機車竊盜犯罪率；若使每萬人社區發展協會數增加，則可間接降低「汽車竊盜犯罪率」。 (七)若地價指數增加，犯罪及被害合適標的物增加，將促使「每萬人社區發展協會數」增加，而間接降低「汽車竊盜犯罪率」。 (八)「已婚婦女就業率」增加雖使日常活動理論犯罪監控機制減弱，但其透過「每萬人社區發展協會數」增加，藉由鄰里居民之間的凝聚力及非正式社會控制，可間接降低「汽車竊盜犯罪率」。 (九)「每萬青少年擁有學校數」較多，可以直接降低該區「強盜搶奪犯罪率」、「機車竊盜犯罪率」、「住宅竊盜犯罪率」及「毒品犯罪率」，且能間接透過「每萬人社區發展協會數」的增加而降低「汽車竊盜犯罪率」，發揮中介效果。 (十)低犯罪率鄉鎮市區「每萬人社區發展協會數」相較於另一群為高，除直接減少「汽車竊盜」，亦能透過「每萬青少年擁有學校數」的增加，間接降低該區「強盜搶奪犯罪率」、「機車竊盜犯罪率」、「住宅竊盜犯罪率」及「毒品犯罪率」，發揮中介效果。 文內並提出本研究建議。
並列摘要
This study attempts to find the character factors for the safe and low-crime-rate townships, cities and districts in Taiwan as the basis for national development and crime prevention. It separately explores factors and paths of the crime types of robbery, car theft, motorcycle theft, residential burglary and drugs, expecting to provide reference for security decision-making and crime type comparison. The research framework and hypotheses are built under the social disorganization theory, the routine activity theory and the social control theory, which find that although there is a phenomenon of social disorganization or some crime opportunity in daily activities within an area, crime can be prevented and diminished by informal social control norms, cohesion, trust, and exercising collective efficacy. The study first adopts a cluster analysis to define Taiwan’s 239 low-crime-rate townships, cities and districts, and then uses official secondary data provided by the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics of the Executive Yuan, the Department of Statistics of the Ministry of the Interior, and the Criminal Investigation Bureau to conduct empirical analysis in paths, etc. The results are as follows: 1. As Clinard (1978) pointed out, the economic condition and the degree of poverty are not factors affecting crime. 2. Applying comparative criminology of Clinard (1978), we find that the characteristics and influence factors for Taiwan’s low-crime-rate townships, cities and districts are: higher number of schools for every ten thousand juveniles, higher number of community development associations per ten thousand people, lower divorce rate, lower social increase rate, higher number of low-income households, lower population heterogeneity, lower number of regular residents, higher number of people in one household, and higher employment rate for married women, while the land price index may not be less. 3. The influence paths for Taiwan’s low-crime-rate townships, cities and districts are as follows: (1) Reducing the divorce rate can increase the number of community development associations per ten thousand people, and further reduce the car theft rate. (2) Given the substantial outward population moving, by increasing the number of schools for every ten thousand juveniles, the robbery rate, motorcycle theft rate, residential burglary rate and drug crime rate can be indirectly reduced. (3) The increasing low-income households can interpret the increasing number of schools for every ten thousand juveniles, and indirectly reduce the robbery rate, motorcycle theft rate, residential burglary rate and drug crime rate. (4) Reducing population heterogeneity increases the number of schools for every ten thousand juveniles, and indirectly reduces the robbery rate, motorcycle theft rate, residential burglary rate and drug crime rate; and through a higher number of community development associations per ten thousand people, people get to develop mutual trust, help each other, and build collective efficacy, which can indirectly reduce the car theft rate. (5) Reducing population density directly reduces the robbery rate and motorcycle theft rate. (6) Reducing the number of regular residents can directly reduce the motorcycle theft rate; if the number of community development associations per ten thousand people is increased, the car theft rate can be indirectly reduced. (7) If the land price index increases, crime and victim subjects also increase, which will increase the number of community development associations per ten thousand people, and indirectly reduce the car theft rate. (8) Although an increasing married women’s employment rate weakens the crime monitoring mechanism under the daily activity theory, it can indirectly reduce the car theft rate through the growing number of community development associations per ten thousand people with cohesiveness among neighborhood residents and informal social control. (9) A larger number of schools for every ten thousand juveniles can directly reduce the robbery rate, motorcycle theft rate, residential burglary rate and drug crime rate for the area, and can indirectly reduce the automobile theft rate through an increasing number of community development associations per ten thousand people, fully exercising the mediating effect. (10) Compared with the other group, the number of community development associations per ten thousand people for low-crime-rate townships, cities and districts is higher, which directly reduces car thefts, and, through the increasing number of schools for every ten thousand juveniles, indirectly reduces the robbery rate, motorcycle theft rate, residential burglary rate and drug crime rate in the area, fully exercising a mediating effect. Within the thesis certain recommendations based on this study are also presented.