高雄市市地重劃抵費地標售價格溢價之評估

Price Premium in Public Land Auction in Kaohsiung City

張菀玲(Wan-Ling Chang)

指導教授 ： 林子欽

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/不動產與城鄉環境學系/碩士(2011年)

摘要

台灣公部門土地標售採行第一價格密封標方式，建商投標時無法得知是否有共同競爭者，故其投標價格的估算顯得格外重要，出標價格過低將有可能無法取得所需土地，出價過高又會增加購地成本而減少未來開發利潤，甚至蒙受損失。惟在現行社會認知中，建商幾乎一面倒被認為是以低成本取得土地並牟取未來高額銷售價差的暴利者，隱含建商在公部門的土地標售市場中總是穩賺不賠的贏家，但卻甚少有實證研究說明建商總是以過低的得標價格取得標售土地。
本研究蒐集高雄市市地重劃標售抵費地中已開發建案的建築與銷售資料，利用土地開發分析法推算土地事後價格，並在價格具有不確定性的基礎下，納入可能價格區間的概念，改善以往總是利用單一定值做為價格高、低比較基準之較為武斷的方式。實證結果發現，樣本中有59%的比例得標價格小於土地事後價格區間的最低值，得標價格過半數比例低於合理的土地事後價格區間，建商在高雄市市地重劃抵費地標售市場中，存有不需透過開發土地過程而只需轉售得標土地即可獲利的空間。
本研究並透過每筆土地的所有投標價格推算該筆土地的事前價格，發現事前價格明顯低於事後價格，推測投標者於投標當時對高雄市未來土地開發市場存在保守估計評估土地價格，此外，投標人數不足導致競爭程度不激烈亦為事前價格低於事後價格的原因之一。

關鍵字

事後價格 ； 價格區間 ； 土地標售

並列摘要

The first-price sealed-bid auction is adopted in the land auction of the public sector in Taiwan. Builders can’t know who are the potential competitors or how many of them before the auction results are revealed, so they need to be more careful when they decide their bid price. Builders always are viewed as the party who can get huge profits from the land which they win in the public auction with unreasonable low bid price. However, this social cognition that builders are always winners who earn excessive profits was seldom proofed in the present researches.
This study gathers the sales and developed data of buildings and employs land development analysis method to calculate the ex-post price of land. In order to improve the shortcoming of lack of uncertainty when using single value to be the benchmark of whether the price is too high or not, this study adds the concept of acceptable price zone into expressing uncertainty related to the price. The empirical result reveals that the percentage of highest bid below the minimum price of acceptable price zone of the land ex-post price is 59%, and shows that builders have the premium between their bids and land ex-post price. According to this result, in the public land auction of Kaohsiung city, builders can earn profits through reselling the land which they win even if the development is not performed on it.
Moreover, this study estimates the land ex-ante price with all the bid prices of every land at auction, and finds that the land ex-ante price is lower than the and ex-post price. There are two inferred reasons of this empirical result, one is that bidders are conservative about the land development market in Kaohsiung city, the other is that numbers of bidders are not sufficient enough to raise competition level in Kaohsiung city.

並列關鍵字

ex post price ； acceptable price zone ； land auction

參考文獻

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