削減國光石化CO2排放量之成本效益分析－PAGE2009模型之應用

Cost Benefit Analysis of KuoKuang Petrochemical’s CO2 Emission Reduction- The application of PAGE2009 model

蘇中正(Tiongchen, Soh)

指導教授 ： 蕭代基

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2011年)

摘要

摘要
　　本研究選擇PAGE2009整合評估模型作為研究工具，評估消減國光石化新增CO2排放量的成本與效益，減排所避免的損害是減量的效益。該模型有完整的大氣模組，並且可搭配蒙地卡羅運算模擬氣候變遷的不確定性，因此適用於溫室氣體減量政策的成本效益分析。
　　本研究之模擬結果顯示：短期而言，國光石化減排的成本大於效益。但隨著時間軸延伸至長期，自2065年起，減量效益將超越減量成本。從全球觀點，國光石化CO2減量所帶來的減量效益大於減量成本，減量作為可行。

關鍵字：CO2減量、成本效益分析、PAGE2009模型

關鍵字

CO2減量、成本效益分析、PAGE2009模型

並列摘要

Abstract
Cost Benefit Analysis of KuoKuang Petrochemical’s CO2 Emission Reduction- The application of PAGE2009 model

The siting of the KouKuang petrochemical plant has been one of the most controversial events concerning environment and development in Taiwan. Several environmental protection issues had been debated thoroughly. However, the costs of global warming, or the damage costs that would be caused by the CO2 emission of the plant, had been rarely justified. This study aim to apply PAGE2009 Integrated Assessment Model (PAGE2009 model) to analyze the cost and benefit of reducing KuoKuang Petrochemical’s CO2 emission and to provide some useful insights on climate change issues in Taiwan. PAGE2009 model has been well known as cost-benefit-analysis framework of climate change since Stern Review. PAGE2009 model has several important features, namely climate module with very detailed description and supported by IPCC scientific evidence, flexible modeling structure and ability to perform the risk analysis of climate change issues by Monte-Carlo simulation.

The simulation result unsurprisingly reveal that by 2040 the aggregated present value of the preventative costs bear by Taiwan will exceed the aggregated present value of the preventative global benefit. The aggregated present value of the preventative benefit will exceed the preventative costs after some turning point around 2065.

Keywords: Cost Benefit Analysis, CO2 emission reduction, PAGE2009 model

並列關鍵字

Cost Benefit Analysis, CO2 emission reduction, PAGE2009 model

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