- 學位論文
台灣總體經濟變數對國家主權債務之實證研究
THE EMPIRICAL STUDY ON TAIWAN MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY DEBT
摘要
國家債務問題，自2008年金融海嘯以來，歐盟、美國和日本的國家主權債務日益惡化，因而歐盟自冰島破產後，希臘進而步入後塵，再接二連三的爆出葡萄牙、西班牙、義大利的債檯高築，市場上也稱為歐豬五國(PIGS)，然而國家債務問題嚴重至可能造成國家破產，投資環境急速惡化。有鑑於此，我國自80年後六年國建開始，國家預算大增，造成國家債務逐年升高，期間對國家總體經濟數據表現如何，為主要研究方向，本研究測試自1999年後國家債務變化對其總體經濟數據表現的影響為此實證，研究應變數為每月中央政府財政部國庫署公佈的重要財政指標中，公庫收支及債務項目中，所公告的中央政府債務未償餘額占GDP及GNP之比率，其中國家債務未償餘額，包括內債和外債的數據，而自變數包括經建會景氣訊號燈的綜合指標，以及國家經常帳的處分項，貨幣供給、以及物價指數與利率等變數項，以逐步迴歸完成最適模型，進而驗證國家債務變化，對經濟表現相關的因素影響較明顯的項目因子，以提供機構研究與企業活動決策的方向參考。經實證結果，景氣指標與貨幣供給在迴歸式中求出變數不顯著，而GDP和物價與利率為顯著影響，更求出消費與投資為重要變數之一。
並列摘要
The national debt question, since 2008 the financial Tsunami, European Union, American and Japan's national sovereignty debt has worsened day by day, thus European Union goes bankrupt after Iceland, after Greece then following, one after another sequel Portuguese, Spanish, Italy's being heavily in debt, In addition called (PIGS), however the national debt question to possibly causes the country to go bankrupt seriously, the investment environment worsens rapidly. For this reason, our country constructs the start from 80 year latter six year National construction, the state budget increases, causes the national debt to elevate year by year, period how Economic indication to the national Macroeconomic data, for in study direction, this study test after 1999 the national debt change to its Macroeconomic data performance's influence for this reason real diagnosis, the study dependent variable for in each month National Treasury Agency announcement's important financial indicators, in the national balance of payments and the debt in items, the Central authorities debt which announced has outstanding central government debt as a percentage of GDP and GNP, the outstanding central government debt, including internal debt and foreign loan data, but independent variable including Economic Monitoring indicators the component series, as well as the national current account place the component series, the currency supplies, as well as variable items and so on consumer price index and interest rate, complete the most suitable model by the stepwise multiple regression, then the confirmation country debt influence, to the economic indication related factor influence obvious project factor, provides the organization research with the enterprise activities provides the market reference. The purpose of this research is to employ the composite indicators and GDP and the currency supplies extract the variable in stepwise multiple regressions not obviously, but GDP and the price and the interest rate to obviously the influence, extracts the expense and the investment one of for important variables.