- 學位論文
中小企業授信風險與財務指標之關聯性
THE CORRELATION BETWEEN CREDIT RISK AND FINANCIAL RATIOS OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZED ENTERPRISES
摘要
中小企業發展的制約因素，莫過於資金籌措，但因財報失真，銀行如何控管其風險，創造雙贏，乃是一大難題。本研究擷取A銀行授信正常戶500戶及違約戶105戶，借款前三年徵信報告共605戶，探討: 一、銀行面對中小企業授信之可能風險因素及重要的財務比率。 二、針對正常戶與違約戶進行差異性t-檢定，以分析營業時間、有無廠辦、行業別、授信期限、授信金額、資本額、營業額等企業特性有無顯著差異。 三、針對授信戶違約之可能影響因素，包括償債能力、資本結構、經營效能、獲利能力及成長率共22個變數進行羅吉斯迴歸的預測模型分析。 經由實證結果，獲致三點結論： 一、經資料整理分析，銀行業於中小企業授信面對之風險因素為信用五P-借款人（People）、資金用途（Purpose）、還款來源（Payment）、債權保障（Protection）及授信展望（Perspective）。參考的財務比率為財報五力-償債能力(Debt-paying ability)、資本結構(Stability)、經營效能(Activity power)、獲利能力(Profitability)及成長率(Growth)。 二、差異性t-檢定結果顯示，正常戶與違約戶在企業營運時間、有無廠辦、一般或生產事業、授信金額、資本額、營業額確實有很大差異。其中就授信金額、資本額、營業額之平均數而言，正常公司較違約公司數字高且有顯著差異，代表正常公司需要更多的資金營運、資本額大代表資本結構健全、營業額高顯示公司業績的成長，此結果可提供銀行授信時之基本依據。 三、經過逐步羅吉迴歸分析後，發現流動比率、速動比率、固定長期適合率、負債比率、淨值比率、應收款項週轉率、總資產週轉率、毛利率、資產報酬率等財務指標，對授信品質具有顯著影響力，此研究結論可提供未來銀行授信決策時之參考。 依據上述研究結論，可歸納出三點建議： 一、上列九項財務指標對授信品質具有顯著影響力，因此，中小企業應針對本身的「財務面」特性速謀改善。尤其2013年IFRS正式實施後，「非公開發行」公司將不再有可豁免編製合併報表的條件，若能及早因應調整，不但能減少衝擊，且財務透明化後更能贏取銀行之信任與支持，否則未來將動彈不得。 二、銀行授信審核時，應對非財務性資料、負責人或實際經營者個人特性、產業特性、國內外經濟金融最新情況及個人業務經驗做審慎評估。 三、銀行融資時，可考量該企業財務之歷史資料。擔保率在本研究中對授信品質並不具顯著影響，似可證明擔保率之於違約機率是指銀行收回呆帳之比率，有無擔保品與是否違約沒有必然關係。因此，銀行更應重視的是第一道防線-還款來源。款貨資產比、授信比對授信品質亦不具顯著影響。更從正常戶與違約戶描述統計量分析中可知，淨值比率最大值100，最小值-592.9，代表中小企業淨值偏低，甚至為負數，卻仍在營業的公司履見不鮮。根據個人的實務經驗，要求其增資却無意願，但仍正常營運的公司更不在少數，顯示其財報嚴重失真。是故，銀行在授信時，財務比率應是必要之審核，但絕非准駁之唯一依據。 併提出三項政策建議以供參考 一、2010年台灣中小企業家數約有120萬家，佔總企業家數98％以上，總就業人口819萬餘人，其經營之成敗對社會穩定具有關鍵性作用。因此，建議決策者應擴大信保基金之規模、放寬標準或成立第二家保證機構或仿效日本商工組合中央金庫憑藉「PPP (Public Private Partnership)」機制，透過聯合政府和民間資金，形成服務中小企業的金融機構。過去國家扶持政策一直向大企業傾斜之做法應適度調整，讓貧富差距縮小，社會更安定，畢竟中小企業才是我們的根。 二、加強企業社會責任乃國際趨勢，工作環境完善則可減少工安事件，員工與企業主同蒙其利，更是公司之無形資產。建議後續研究者可考慮將之納入研究範疇，更可透過法令的修正，讓善盡企業社會責任之優良廠商得以獲得特定之優惠或獎勵。 銀行在辦理授信業務時，除了應遵循安全性與收益性外，更應遵循公益性，配合政府各項政策，促進社會公益，以善盡銀行之企業社會責任。 三、授信實務上極重視之「現金流量比率」，由於中小企業財報不全，資料蒐集時多所缺失，未能納入本研究之分析。建議透過法令或會計制度修正，能完全呈現在財務報表上，除可導正中小企業財報偏差外，更能捕捉其更多之風險資訊。
並列摘要
Fund raising is the major constraint in small and medium-sized enterprises’ (SME) further development. Due to the distortion in financial statements, how to manage risks and find out win-win solutions are challenging for banks. This research examines three consecutive years’ credit reports of 605 loan accounts which cover the corresponding financial status of 500 normal and 105 default SMEs prior to the loans and credits were granted by Bank A. The major issues discussed are as follows: 1. Potential risk factors and critical financial ratios in SMEs lending. 2. Variation T-test on normal and default accounts to analyze any differences existing in those concerned enterprises, such as operating risk of the enterprise, existence of factory/office, nature of industry (i.e., manufacturing or non-manufacturing enterprises), tenor of credit, amount of credit extended, capital, and business volume etc. 3. Twenty two variables that can possibly lead to credit default, such as solvency, capital structure, efficiency, profitability, growth rate, etc., are adopted to undertake logistic regression models analysis. There are three conclusions derived from empirical analysis: 1. Five risk factors, i.e., people（borrower）, purpose, payment, protection, and perspective are the key issues in credit analysis and SMEs financing. Method adopted for diagnosing financial performance of the SMEs is the analyses of five financial aspects which reflect the financial abilities of the enterprises, i.e., debt-paying ability, stability, activity power, profitability, and growth. 2. Variation T-test shows that normal and default accounts differ greatly in operating history of the enterprise, existence of factory/office, nature of industry, amount of credit extended, capital, and business volume. In terms of the respective mean (average number) of the amount of credit extended, capital, and business volume, the normal accounts are significantly greater than those of default accounts. This means that normal enterprises need more funds for their operations. Meanwhile, it certifies that sufficient capital stabilizes asset structure, and high business volume represents the continuing growth on sales. These results on variation test provide an important reference for banks to conduct credit business. 3. Logistic regression analysis reveals that financial ratios such as current ratio, quick ratio, capitalization ratio, debt-to-equity ratio, net worth ratio, receivable turnover ratio, assets turnover ratio, gross profit ratio, return on assets, etc. have notable impact on bank’s credit decision making hence their credit asset quality. These conclusions could be the reference for banks in making their informed credit decisions. Three recommendations drawn from the thesis are: 1. Due to the significant impact of the above-mentioned nine financial ratios on the bank’s credit asset quality, SMEs should adjust their internal financial and accounting system as soon as possible. In particular, the international accounting principles of IFRS will become effective in 2013, all the non-public listed companies would no longer be exempt from compiling consolidated financial statements. The sooner the adjustment is planned, the better the financial statement is fully disclosed, which would also gain the trust and support from the bank. 2. With the aim of making sound credit decision, banks should carefully review non-financial data, individual characteristic of the CEO, outlook of the industry, domestic and global economy and financial situation. The experience and competency of the individual loan officer should also be carefully assessed. 3. In addition, banks could also review the historical financial performance of the enterprises. The collateral coverage ratio does not have significant impact on credit asset quality, which could implies that in relations to the default probability, the collateral coverage ratio no more than simulates the prospective recover ratio of the bank’s bad debt, and is not necessarily connected to the probability of default. As a result, banks should focus on source of repayment, the first line of defense. In addition, neither the ratio of account receivable and inventory to total assets「(account receivable + inventory) / total assets」nor the ratio of total outstanding borrowings to net sales (total outstanding borrowings / net sales) has noticeable impact on credit asset quality. From the statistical analysis of normal and default accounts, we found that the maximum net worth ratio is 100 and the minimum net worth ratio is -592.9, which means it is common for SMEs in the status of low net worth or even negative net worth while they are still in operation. In my personal experience, most of the SMEs have no intention to commit to the capital injection. Quite a number of SMEs are still under normal operation. That’s the reason the SMEs’ financial statements are seriously distorted. Henceforth, financial ratios analysis is essential but not the sole basis for banks in making their credit decisions. The proposed policies are: 1. In 2010, there were approximately 1.2 million SMEs in Taiwan, constitute of 98% of total enterprises, with total employees of more than 8.19 million. SMEs play a vital role in the economic development and social stability of Taiwan. The government authority should enlarge the guarantee capabilities of the Small and Medium Enterprise Credit Guarantee Fund of Taiwan (Taiwan SMEG), and ease the guarantee criteria to SMEs. Setting up a second guarantee institution, or following the mechanism of PPP (Public Private Partnership) in Japan that created the Norinchukin Bank, a financial institution with government and non-government funds to provide services to SMEs is also highly recommended. The government policies that have been inclined to support the development of large enterprises in the past should be modified to provide more resources to SMEs for the purpose of enhancing their competitive ability and thus social stability. 2. It is an international trend to reinforce the social responsibilities of enterprises. A well and safe work environment will reduce safety incident and create the mutual benefit to both employer and employees. These precious intangible assets are important for SMEs sustainable development. We believe through the revision of regulations on tax return to award those good reputed enterprises will promote more non-commercial public service activities. Banks should not only abide by security and profitability but also social responsibilities on public welfare events. 3. Cash flow ratio is greatly emphasized in lending practices. However, due to the insufficient financial information and difficulty in data collection of SMEs, the cash flow ratio is not included into this research. The revision of relative laws and accounting system is helpful for banks to obtain fully disclosed financial statements. The defects on incorrect financial statements will be anticipated to have a great improvement.