本文研究目的為探討台灣對中國大陸進出口貿易與直接外人投資互動關聯性之研究,除作為建構分析模式之基礎外,並釐清本文研究對象之相關製造業。並檢視實證模型中各項變數,以發掘台灣對中國大陸製造業進出口貿易與直接外人投資之決定因素,以作為台灣對大陸進出口貿易及投資之決策基礎。分析過程採合併時間序列之panel分析方法,採用1994年1月至2009年12月月資料分析國內製造業之四大產業,並分別探討加入WTO與人民幣匯率變動之影響效果。 根據研究結果顯示,台灣自大陸進口、台灣對大陸出口、台灣對大陸直接外人投資相互存在著影響關係,特別是在台灣加入WTO之後其影響程度會有增加之現象。當人民幣相對於新台幣升值時,對台灣對大陸出口和台灣對大陸直接外人投資有正向之影響效果,對台灣自大陸進口為負向之影響效果。 冀望本文之研究結果對製造業者擬定相關策略及投資者和政府政策制定者提供政策建議之參考。
The main purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants and relationships among imports, exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) of four manufacturing industries between Taiwan and Mainland China. Firstly, the simultaneous equation model is constructed to detect the determinants of imports, exports and foreign direct investment of Taiwan’s four manufacturing industries by applying the panel data from January 1994 to December 2009. The effects of Taiwan joining the WTO and renminbi appreciation are also detected in this study. The empirical results indicate that the interactive relationships among Taiwan imports from Mainland China, Taiwan exports to Mainland China and Taiwan foreign direct investment to Mainland China do exist. Especially after Taiwan joining the WTO, the degree of the interactive relations became stronger. As Renminbi appreciates relative to New Taiwan dollar, it causes Taiwan exports and FDI to Mainland China to increase but imports from Mainland China to decrease. Basically, the empirical results of this study would provide useful information for firms, investors and government agencies to design their policy-making.