- 學位論文
兩岸金融MOU簽訂對台灣銀行業股價之宣告效果研究
A Study on the Anouncement Effect of Singing Financial MOU Between Taiwan and China on Stock Returns in Taiwanese Banking
摘要
自從政府開放民營銀行後，台灣的銀行業長久以來一直處於競爭激烈且利差相當微薄的市場環境，惟有進軍國際金融舞台，開拓新興金融市場，方為銀行業永續經營的藍海策略。 由於大陸已成為台灣最大的投資與經貿往來的對象，且在2008年金融海嘯後台灣的銀行業急欲轉變尋求新商機的時點；面對大陸由於經濟發展快速，每年GDP穩定成長，銀行業的經營環境有著無窮商機；投資人對於未來台灣銀行業登陸的經營績效，則報投以無比的期待。 本研究主要探討之部分，為在2009年11月16日兩岸簽訂金融MOU，此重大事件的發生，對台灣上市櫃的銀行業其股價變動情形，以事件研究法驗證其簽訂是否存在有超額報酬。並且，藉此瞭解投資人對台灣金融機構未來拓展大陸市場的前景，是否給予肯定其價值並反應在股價上。並就金控與非金控銀行業，及已設立辦事處佈局與否來進一步做延伸研究。 研究結果發現如下： 一、全體銀行業的股價在MOU簽訂之事件日並未有顯著的超額報酬表現，宣告後對股價造成之平均異常報酬為顯著的負向。 二、金控類股與非金控類股之宣告效果大致相同，其中宣告後對股價造成異常報酬之情形皆為的負向，所以經營規模為金控的銀行受MOU簽訂的宣告效果並不具優勢。 三、已設立辦事處者與尚未設立辦事處者之宣告效果大致相同，其中宣告後對股價造成異常報酬之情形皆為的負向，所以已設立辦事處佈局的銀行受MOU簽訂的宣告效果並不具優勢。
並列摘要
The banking industry in Taiwan had been in the intense competition with very low interest margin after the government allowed bank privatization. The Blue Ocean Strategy to sustainable developing for the banking industry is to expand the financial market internationally and develop into new developing market. Mainland China has been Taiwan’s biggest investment and trading market. Especially, the banking industry in Taiwan is seeking for new business opportunities after financial crisis starting in 2008. It’s expected to have endless opportunities for banking business with rapid growth in China’s economic development and stable growth in GDP each year. Investors expect great returns for future operating performance after Taiwanese Banks’development in Mainland China. The major part of this study uses the Event Study, a major event of signing the memorandum of understanding (MOU) on cooperation in the financial supervision across the Taiwan Strait on November 16, 2009, to see if there is any abnormal return for the stock movement of those public listed banks. And, to understand the prospects of Taiwan's financial institutions to expand mainland market for the future, whether to affirm its value and reflected in stock price. And to financial holding companies and non-financial holding companies in banking, and has set up offices to do the layout or not to further extend the study. This event’s research result as follows: 一、All the banking shares on the MOU signing event did not have a significant excess return performance, causing the stock price after the announcement of the average abnormal return is significantly negative. 二、Financial holding stocks and shares of non-financial holding have similar announcement effect, which caused the stock price after the announcement abnormal returns are all negative situations, so the scale of financial holding companies operating banks in the announcement effect, signed by the MOU is not a advantage. 三、Has set up the office and with not yet to set up the office the announcement effect to be almost same, which caused the stock price after the announcement abnormal returns are all negative situations, and so the layout of an office by the MOU signed between the bank and the announcement effect not a competitive advantage.