為了調節房地產市場景氣及健全房地產價格,政府實施了土地增值稅減半徵收、調降土地增值稅稅率及開徵奢侈稅等房地產稅捐政策,而房地產稅捐政策不但會影響房地產景氣,亦會直接衝擊相關稅收收入。本研究之目的在建立土地買賣筆數及土地增值稅之模型,以觀察近年房地產稅捐政策對其影響。本研究以1995年至2012年每月之土地增值稅實徵淨額及土地買賣登記筆數做為分析資料,運用單變量ARIMA模型及轉換函數模型建立土地增值稅及土地買賣登記筆數模型,再藉由虛擬變數以介入模型觀察房地產稅捐政策執行後土地買賣筆數及土地增值稅稅收之變動情形。 研究結果發現土地增值稅稅率調降後,土地買賣登記筆數呈現突增後即為穩定之狀態,而非呈持續走高的情形。土地增值稅稅率調降之政策似乎僅讓土地買賣登記筆數回歸於常態水準,而非有大幅成長之效果;而土地增值稅稅收模型中,土地增值稅減半徵收虛擬變數之參數估計值為負且為顯著,顯示土地增值稅減半徵收後,土地增值稅實徵淨額較之前減少,至調降稅率政策階段,其參數估計值雖亦為負,但並不顯著。而奢侈稅開徵之虛擬變數於土地買賣登記筆數模型中,其參數估計值顯著且為負值,顯示奢侈稅開徵後土地買賣登記筆數有明顯之減少,且奢侈稅開徵後土地買賣登記筆數衰退的幅度比土地增值稅稅率調降後成長的幅度大。
In order to improve real estate market, the government implements several real estate tax revenue policies, such as land value increment tax cut, land value increment tax rate change and the luxury tax. Real estate policies not only affect housing market but impact related tax revenues. This paper aims to model land transaction quantity and land value increment taxation to observe how the real estate tax policies affect tax revenues and housing market. In this paper, monthly actual tax revenues from land value increment tax and registered land transaction quantities from 1995 to 2012 are used for empirical analysis. ARIMA model and transfer function model are applied to establish the model of land value increment taxation and registered land transaction quantity. Furthermore, Intervention model with dummy variable is used to observe the impact of real estate tax policies on the land transaction quantity and the land value increment taxation. Study results reveal that land value increment tax cut only has one year impact on registered land transaction quantity. The results implies that the policy of land value increment tax cut can only pull registered land transaction back to the normal level but has no significant effect on stimulating real estate market. Study results from the model of land value increment taxation show that both of tax cut and tax rate change of land value increment have negative effect on tax revenues, but only land value increment tax cut is significant. However, the luxury tax has significant effect on registered land transaction quantities, but no significant effect on tax revenues. The impact of luxury tax is larger than of registered land transaction quantities on registered land transaction quantities.