- 學位論文
支出調整抑或收入調整 — 台灣中央政府財政行為實證研究
Revenue or Spending adjustment – The Empirical Result of Central Government’s Behavior in Taiwan
摘要
本文依據林向愷､賴惠子(2009)財政赤字現值模型：「財政赤字」等於未來政府財政努力程度的現值，探討台灣中央政府1968-2008年期間在跨期財政平衡限制下，面對財政赤字衝擊而產生未預期的財政赤字時，究竟是採行支出調整抑或收入調整以回復財政的長期平衡。本文修正一般化衝擊反應函數(Generalized impulse response function)估算未來年度歲出與歲入成長率對財政赤字的動態回應型態。同時利用Polito and Wickens(2007)的方法編製台灣的財政狀態指標(an index of the fiscal stance)做為未來特定期間內的財政狀況衡量，以為政府短期財政政策制定的依據。
並列摘要
This article is based on the fiscal deficit present value model by Lin and Lai(2009), which means the fiscal deficit is the target present value of how hard the government has worked in the fiscal fields. And also discuss how the Taiwanese Government choosing adjustment by spending or revenue to restore fiscal balance in long term when facing the unexpected fiscal deficit shock which occurs at the limitation of intertemporal fiscal balance. This article has corrected the Generalized impulse response function to estimate how the dynamic response of the growth rate of tax and spending that were affected by fiscal deficit. At the same time, uses the method of Polito and Wickens(2007) to organize the index of the fiscal stance to value the conditions of the fiscal affairs, it is the accordance of organizing short term financial policy.