捕蠅紙效果與政治因素之實證研究-以臺灣地方財政為例

An Empirical Study of Flypaper Effect and Political Factors: The Case of Local Public Finance in Taiwan

莊朝欽(Chao-Chin Chuang)

指導教授 ： 林恭正

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/公共行政暨政策學系/碩士(2011年)

摘要

在過去的相關研究中，多數研究捕蠅紙效果的學者皆較關注於不同類型的支出，是否有在支出滯留效果上有所差異，另一方面，有部分學者將政治因素加入，進一步分析地方政府支出行為。本研究使用2001到2009年臺灣21縣市之地方財政收支、社會經濟變數，進行縱橫資料(panel data)之迴歸分析，以Nagamine(1995)之「地方政府代理行為模式(behavioral model of a local government agency)」為理論模型依據，依據政府權力假設分成兩種模型，模型一為「地方政府具完全資源配置自主權」，模型二為「地方政府不完全資源分配權力」，並將政治因素及社會經濟變數納入本文實證理論模型中，探討臺灣地區財政制度在納入政治因素考量後是否呈現「捕蠅紙效果」。
有別於之前臺灣實證研究，由於實務上，在臺灣部分一般性補助款被限制於某些特定支出，並不完全具備無限制之一般性補助款性質，因此，本文進一步以中央統籌分配稅款代替一般性補助款來進行推估，另一方面，由於主計單位表示中央政府在實際補助運作上，係將對地方的一般性補助款及統籌分配稅款合併考慮，因此，本文將進一步以一般性補助款及統籌分配稅款之合計數替代一般性補助款來進行推估。
結果顯示，補助款對於刺激地方公共支出效果在所有假說中均大於所得的影響，然而多數未獲顯著性支持，因此無法認定捕蠅紙效果普遍存在不同假說中；如果我們認為臺灣地方政府不具完全權力，並考慮較具無條件補助性質的統籌分配稅款來替代一般補助款進行分析，則實證結果支持臺灣地方政府的支出中存在捕蠅紙效果。此外，政治因素為相對穩定之解釋變數，其中資料所屬年度是否為地方選舉年對地方公共支出為顯著正向且穩定之影響。

關鍵字

捕蠅紙效果 ； 政治因素 ； 地方財政 ； 中央統籌分配稅款

並列摘要

In previous related studies, most scholars focus their research on whether different kind of public expenditures will be different in the stickiness of expenditure, while there are others also take political factors into account to further analyze local governments’ expenditure behavior. This study investigates local public expenditure of 21 counties and cities in Taiwan during 2001 to 2009; regression analysis was based on panel data of public expenditures and socio-economic variables. Two different models of government authority assumption, based on the behavioral model of a local government agency proposed by Nagamine(1995), are constructed. The first model is referred to “Local government with full autonomy in the allocation of resources”, and the second model is “Local government authority does not have full autonomy in the allocation of resources”. Political and socio-economic factors were incorporated into both empirical models to investigate their effect on the occurrence of the flypaper effect in local government expenditure.
Unlike previous empirical studies in Taiwan, this study takes central distribution tax in replacing general grant to investigate the flypaper effect in Taiwan since part of the general grants were being limited in some specific expenditure, which means it does not have the characteristics of unconditional lump-sum grant. In addition, according to the associated authorities’ insight, the central government considers the combination of general grants and central distribution tax as the whole subsidy to local government in practice. Thus, this study combines general grants and central distribution tax to investigate the flypaper effect in Taiwan, instead of using general grants only.
The results show that the stimulating effect on public expenditure of subsidies was greater than the effect of income, yet the evidence is still not significant enough to support whether the flypaper effect does exist in general assumptions; if we consider that the government does not have full autonomy of resource in Taiwan and assume the central distribution tax as a substitute of the general grant, the result would assert the existence of flypaper effect in local government expenditure. Furthermore, the political factors are relatively stable explanatory variables, while the variable of local election year has significantly positive and stable effect on local public expenditure.

並列關鍵字

Flypaper effect ； Political factors ； Local public finance ； Central distribution tax

參考文獻

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