- 學位論文
財務指標對汽車類股報酬預測之關聯性研究
The Relationship between Financial Ratios and Automobile Sector Stock Returns
摘要
在過去對汽車類股的研究都注重於品牌、供應鏈、顧客服務…等營運績效的觀點來探討對股價的影響，本研究是以財務的觀點來探討哪些財務指標對汽車類股價之影響。財務報表資訊可以表達一個企業的財務狀況，財務比率分析是財務報表分析中最常用的分析工具，投資人欲瞭解公司經營狀況方式之一，藉以判斷公司的財務狀況與經營績效之良好與否，進而探討這些股票能否在市場上能獲取超額報酬。本研究選用21項財務指標，利用逐步迴歸分析哪些財務指標具有預測未來股價之能力。研究結果發現，股價淨值比、營業毛利成長率、應付帳款付現天數呈現正向顯著關係，淨值成長率、自由現金流量呈現負向顯著關係。
關鍵字
汽車股、財務比率、逐步迴歸並列摘要
In the past research of automobile industry, most of the studies are focusing on operational performance such as brand, supply chain, customer service, etc. This study uses a financial point of view, seeking to evaluate the relationship between financial ratios and automobile sector stock returns. Financial report and financial ratios analysis can reflect company's financial situation and the management performance, which is commonly use by investors. This research chooses 21 financial indicators, using stepwise regression analysis to find out which indicators are capable of predicting future stock returns. The result shows that P/B ratio, gross margin growth and accounts payable turnover days are significantly and positively related to stock returns; while equity growth rate and free cash flows are significantly and negatively related to stock returns.