- 學位論文
美國量化寬鬆政策對新興經濟體之影響分析
The Impact Analysis of US Quantitative Easing Policy on Emerging Economies
摘要
美國從2007 年的次級房貸風暴，到2008 年的金融海嘯，經濟狀況 持續惡化，為了拯救經濟，美國實施了「非傳統」的「量化寬鬆貨幣 政策」，希望能刺激民間消費與企業投資，改善經濟狀況。但是，效 果並不如預期般理想，反而造成大量資金流入了新興經濟體，造成流 動性溢出，導致金融市場之波動。 因此，本研究以2008 年到2012 年期間以7 個新興經濟體的總經數 據進行研究，透過貨幣供給有關的總經變數如： M2、外匯存底等變數， 來探討量化寬鬆政策對新興經濟體的金融市場與實質經濟活動之影響 效果的議題，當中運用了敘述統計，並使用追縱資料之固定效果模型， 進行迴歸分析。本研究實證結果歸納以下結論： 1. 美國量化寬鬆政策對新興經濟體的實質經濟活動沒有刺激作用；而 外匯存底為影響股票與匯率市場最主要的寬鬆貨幣指標 2. 美國量化寬鬆政策的影響程度，隨執行次數增加而呈遞減效果
並列摘要
Starting from the subprime crisis in 2007 to financial tsunami in 2008, the financial condition in US continued to worsen. In order to save the US economy, FED had carried out the unconventional monetary policy, i.e. Quantitative Easing Policy (QE), and expected that it will stimulate the domestic consumption and enterprise investment, so as to improve the economy’s condition. However, the result is far below as expected and on the contrary, the liquidity spillover to emerging economies, causing the fluctuation in the financial markets in emerging economies. Therefore, this paper investigates the impact of US Quantitative Easing Policy on Emerging economies from 2008 to 2012. By using the macro-economy factors that related to money supply such as M2, foreign reserve to investigate the impact and to compare the effectiveness of different stage of QE. We concluded that: 1. The U.S. QE policy does not stimulate the real economy activity of Emerging economies. And foreign reserve has been proved to be the most important indicator that influenced the fluctuation of stock and foreign exchange markets of emerging economies within the examined QE policy execution period. 2. The impact of QE policy has been decreasing and the first stage has been the most obvious one.