貨幣政策對中國房地產價格及家計單位消費支出之影響

The Impact of Monetary Policy on House Price and Consumption Expenditure in China

陳建甫(Chien-Fu Chen)

指導教授 ： 彭序文

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/不動產與城鄉環境學系/碩士(2013年)

摘要

房地產價格變化與中國經濟發展息息相關，更對中國經濟各部門的發展都有著至關重要的連結。房地產價格波動，不僅關係到家計單位的財富水準，也對中國經濟之穩定發展發揮重要的影響力。
近年來，中國房地產產業投資成長率不僅高於固定資產投資成長率和GDP成長率，於此同時中國房地產產值占中國GDP之比重也逐年增加中，房地產開發投資額占全中國社會固定資產投資之比重也呈現日益增加之趨勢，房地產產業已然成為中國經濟發展的核心產業之一。在房屋自有率及房地產財富持續累積增加的過程中，如何發揮房地產財富效果以增強消費支出，進而帶動中國經濟成長，儼然是一重要的課題。故本研究欲了解貨幣政策是否能有效對房地產價格造成影響，及了解中國是否存在房地產財富效果。
根據研究結果顯示，中國貨幣政策對房地產價格之影響、房地產財富效果對消費支出之影響，在實證結果上皆不顯著。這造成中國房地產價格上漲無法發揮其應有之財富效果，房地產財富的增值無法有效轉化為可支配所得以促進消費，達成以擴大消費作為經濟成長之政策目標。現階段對於消費支出的主要影響來源仍為可支配所得，持續增加中的房地產財富無法有效轉化為消費支出之資金來源。背後所隱含的原因與中國房地產市場的發展歷程不夠久遠、不夠成熟且與金融市場之間的聯繫亦不夠緊密有關，這都是造成房地產財富效果發揮不佳的原因。因此，持續對房地產市場、金融市場的改革及強化兩者之間的關聯性，將有助於提升房地產財富效果的發揮，進而對中國經濟的成長提供另一動能。

關鍵字

中國房地產價格；財富效果；貨幣政策

並列摘要

Change in house price is not only related to economic growth, but also related to the growth of all economics sectors. Then house price play an important action in the stability of economic growth in China.
In recent years, the growth rate of investment in housing industry is higher than the growth rate of fixed asset investment and the growth rate of GDP. The real estate industry has become the one of most important industry in China. As the percentage of homeownership rate and the housing wealth increase. To trigger housing wealth effect, enhancing consumption expenditure is very important. The purpose of this study is to understand whether the monetary policy effectively impact on house prices and the existence of housing wealth effect in China.
The research topic of this dissertation is to generalize housing wealth effect of price rising in China. According to the results that the monetary policy cannot impact on house price and the housing wealth effect cannot impact on consumption expenditure. As a result that rising house price cannot boost consumption. At present time in China the housing market is still an immature market and lack of linkage between the housing market and financial market. Because the low linkage disequilibrium that the housing wealth effect is not sufficiently fulfilling in China. Therefore continued to reform financial market and housing market, strengthening the connections between financial market and housing market will contributed to bring housing wealth effect into full play.

並列關鍵字

Housing Price；Wealth Effect；Monetary Policy

參考文獻

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