2008年7月中旬的卡玫基颱風,其所挾帶的豪雨不僅造成雲林、嘉義和高雄等地嚴重淹水,同時也重創台中縣市精華地區,造成嚴重的經濟損失。關於颱洪災害的評估,傳統較偏重在災損與風險評估。而較缺乏從不同地區的特性,瞭解其於災害衝擊後的回復力(resilience),及構成回復力的主要因素。故本研究之主要目的,即希望從颱洪災害的回復經驗,瞭解影響回復力的主要因素及進行回復力的評估與空間比較分析。 回復力的概念早年是由生態界所提出,近年則因全球暖化問題嚴重而逐漸為災害管理領域所重視。因而本文主要的分析方法與內容,先從文獻回顧中汲取影響回復力的因素,以模糊德爾菲法由專家篩選出指標。為使回復力評估指標與內容能考慮地方特性與民眾參與,亦將針對評估地區,進行民眾之回復力評估問卷抽樣調查。而分析對象將以台中市、台中縣龍井鄉和東勢鎮為例,藉由建立的回復力評估指標體系與地理資訊系統,評估此三個地區不同的回復力特性,及進行空間比較分析。
In July 2008, typhoon Kalmaegi caused serious flooding in Yunlin, Chayi, and Kaohsiung by its heavy rains. In the meantime, the typhoon also inflicted heavy losses on the essential areas in Taichung City and Taichung County. However, traditional evaluations on flooding usually lay stress on Hazard Risks and Loss Assessment, which is deficient in the resilience from different point of view and adaptive capacity. Therefore, our purpose of the research is to rectify the main facts of resilience and the concept of adaptive capacity. Furthermore, we try to establish the evaluating system by the assistance of Fuzzy Delphi. Finally we choose Taichung City, Longjing Township and Tungshin Township in Taichung Country from the disaster areas caused by typhoon Kalmaegi for resilience evaluating.