臺灣地方政府收入支出因果關係實證研究

The Revenues-Expenditures Nexus:Empirical Analysis of Taiwan Local Governments

吳昱勳(Yu-Hsun Wu)

指導教授 ： 林恭正

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/財政學系/碩士(2014年)

摘要

根據財政分權理論，藉由中央與地方政府職能的分工，能提升政府效率與實現民主價值，最符合人民期待之公共財將會被提供。近年來各國中央政府有逐漸將權力下放於地方政府之趨勢。
　　臺灣為擴大地方政府權限落實地方自治，於2009年修訂地方制度法，將原臺北縣更名，合併臺中、臺南及高雄縣市，成立5個新直轄市。2011年又再度修法，預計將桃園縣成為第6個直轄市。然而，近年臺灣地方政府財政狀況不佳的問題依然存在。從地方政府收支面來看，兩者短絀日益嚴重，從2000年初的平均2千多億元至2012年左右已達近4千億元。再以債務面觀點，一年以上非自償性債務餘額數有明顯上升之趨勢，2004年為5千1百多億元，至2012年時已達7千5百多億元。
　　雖然造成地方政府財政不良有諸多因素，但欲探究其根本原因，收入支出因果關係的探討是重要的一項。然而目前對於臺灣地方政府收支結構因果關係之研究尚為不足，故本文主要目的是參考國內外文獻關於政府收支關係研究的實證文章，以追蹤資料向量自我迴歸模型(panel vector autoregression model, PVAR)及追蹤資料向量誤差修正模型(panel vector error correction model, PECM)來分析1991至2010年臺灣地方政府財政收支相關變數間的動態關係。
　　研究結果顯示，歲入與歲出、一般政務、教育科學文化及社會安全支出之關係為相互影響，而與經濟發展支出為量入為出。此外，補助款收入與歲出、經濟發展及社會安全支出之關係為互為影響，與一般政務支出為量入為出，而與教育科學文化支出是量出為入。最後，公債及賒借收入與歲出、一般政務、經濟發展及社會安全支出之關係為相互影響；而教育科學文化支出會影響公債及賒借入。
　　政策建議上，地方政府在做政策制定時，應通盤考量收入與支出，並努力增加財源以支應開支，非必要時不應舉借公債，並做好債務管理，以免造成債台高築的窘況，除此之外還要審視支出，檢討不必要之浪費，相信地方政府的財政狀況就會日益改善。

關鍵字

追蹤資料向量自我迴歸模型 ； 量出為入 ； 量入為出 ； 收入支出因果關係 ； 地方財政 ； 追蹤資料向量誤差修正模型

並列摘要

It has been a trend that central government gives the fiscal power to subnational governments for recent years.This kind of trend is called Fiscal Decentralization. In brief, it is a phenomenon that the central government distributes the power to local governments when they making some policies. Because local governments have more information about the optimal amount of public goods required by local residents than the central government do, resources could be distributed efficiently. Recently, the central government of Taiwan has also distributed much power to local governments. For example, in 2009, legislators modified the Local Government Act and established 5 Directly Controlled Municipalities. Besides, this Act was modified again in 2011 and Taoyuan County would be the 6th Directly Controlled Municipality in 2014. However, the fiscal condition of local government in Taiwan has been getting worse for many years. For instance, the fiscal deficit was 200 billion in 2000 but it has grown up to 400 billion in 2012. The deficit has doubled. Besides, the long-term loans have also increased rapidly. From 2004 to 2012, the long-term loans have grown up to 47%.
　　Though there might be many reasons causing the bad fiscal condition of local governments, to get to the root of matter, the causality of taxing and spending structures in local governments may play a major role in this problem. However, due to the lack of researches in the causality of taxing and spending structures in local governments of Taiwan, the main purpose of the study is to study the relation between revenues and expenditures of local government in Taiwan by employing two econometrical methods. One is panel vector autoregression model (PVAR) and the other is panel vector error correction model (PECM).
　　The empirical results could be divided to three dimensions. One is the result between total revenues and 5 types of expenditures. The other is the result between grants and 5 types of expenditures. The last one is the result between loans and public debts revenues and 5 types of expenditures. To begin with the first part of empirical results, it shows a bi-directional relation between total revenues and the following types of expenditures such as total expenditures, expenditures for general administration, education science and culture and social security. Besides, total revenues may cause expenditures for economic development. As for the second part of results about grants, the causality of grants and the 3 kinds of expenditures is fiscal synchronization. Those expenditures are total expenditures, expenditures for economic development and social security. In addition, grants may influence expenditures for general administration; on the other hand, expenditures for education science and culture may cause grants. The last part of results is about revenues fromloans and public debts and expenditures. It shows that there is a bi-directional relation between loans and public debts revenues and the following types of expenditures such as total expenditures, expenditures for general administration, economic development and social security. Besides, expenditures for education science and culture may cause loans and public debts revenues.
　　To improve the deteriorated fiscal condition of local governments in Taiwan, policy makers should take both revenues and expenditures into considerations. Moreover, local governments need to collect revenues harder and spend effectively. I believe that fiscal deficit could be reduced gradually.

並列關鍵字

Panel vector autoregression model ； Spend and tax ； Tax and spend ； Causality of revenues and expenditures ； Local public finance ； Panel vector error correction model

參考文獻

徐仁輝、鄭敏惠 (2011)，「新六都時代地方財政的挑戰與展望」，《研考雙月刊》，

蔡吉源 (2005)，「台灣的競租社會與地方財政惡化」，《中國地方自治》，

Bahl, R. (1995), “Worldwide Trends in Fiscal Decentralization,” Policy Research

　　Center Working Paper, Georgia State University.

Barro, R. J. (1979), “On the Determination of Public Debt,” Journal of Political