消費稅對總體經濟之影響

The Influences of Taxation on Macroeconomics - Take Japan as Example

陳玠儒(Jie-Ju Chen)

指導教授 ： 盧佳慧

國立臺北大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2014年)

摘要

本文根據日本當局調高消費稅率的政策，考慮其宣示效果後，來檢視民衆的經濟行爲是否因爲政策施政而與政策目標有相同的前進方向。爲了考慮到宣示效果，模型上採用離散時間的經濟變數，並在兩種參數設定下考慮：1. 政府直接提高消費稅。 2. 政府經由宣示後六期提高消費稅。考慮此兩種施政方式對經濟變數的影響。

這樣的模型設定下我們分別得到了三個結論：1. 政府直接調高消費稅，代表性家計的工時減少，資本與消費減少，而產出也隨之減少；2. 而政府經由宣示而後才執行調高稅率的政策，將會令資本減少，短期的（宣示至政策實施前的這段期間）消費與休閒增加，意短期內人民的效用獲得提高，然產出下降。3. 民衆消費的跨期替代彈性愈大，則政策的宣示效果愈明顯。

關鍵字

宣示效果 ； 消費稅

並列摘要

This paper analyzes the influences of taxation on macroeconomics, seeing that the behavior of people considering the announcement effect. To take the announcement effect in consideration, we use the discrete economic variables and take two cases of parameter setting under two kinds of taxation policy: 1. Raise the consumption rate directly once the policy is announced. 2. Raise the consumption rate after 6 periods the policy is announced.
This model shows 3 conclusions: 1. Raise the consumption rate directly once the policy is announced, less the labor time of identical consumer, less the per capita consumptions as well. Those results contribute the less output. 2. Raise the consumption rate after 6 periods the policy is announced, less the per capita consumptions and output, while the more consumption and higher utility in a short run. 3. The higher intertemporal elasticity of substitution on consumption, the higher announcement effect works.

並列關鍵字

Announcement effect ； Taxation

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