我國能源安全與電力供給規劃研究

Taiwan’s Energy Security and Electricity Planning

陳曾裕(Zen-Yu Chen)

指導教授 ： 張四立

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2014年)

摘要

20世紀被稱為「石油的時代」(the age of oil)，石油為主的化石燃料造就了現行世界前所未有的經濟成長，一般能源政策與電力規劃皆以化石燃料為基礎，強調能源、經濟與環境(Energy, Economic and the Environment, 3E)三者間的均衡發展，傳統上3E目標於能源面強調確保能源之可取得性(Accessibility)，經濟面重視經濟成長目標下之能源價格穩定，環境面則在減緩氣候變遷願景下盡可能降低使用化石燃料所造成之二氧化碳排放，我國自永續能源政策綱領開始即強調3E的三贏目標，而後無論是98年全國能源會議、新能源政策以及能源發展綱領皆不脫3E目標的範疇。
然而隨著能源價格增長、資源耗竭、技術進步、環境衝擊以及能源型態的轉變等諸多因素，傳統3E面向之能源政策與電力規劃尚有不足之處，近年無論是國際能源總署、歐盟、美國或是亞太經合組織皆開始強調能源安全之重要性，但能源安全當前並未有一致之定義與評估指標，其定義隨著時間、地點以及目標的不同而有所差異與演替，評估指標亦因各國(組織)之發展目標與能源系統特性而有所差異，且現行能源安全指標通常為評估一國特定時間點下之能源供需輪廓，而不若3E為能源政策與電力規劃之考量依據，故本研究試圖於傳統3E目標下納入能源安全意涵，以產業關聯分析之量質混合模型結合多目標規劃法建立MultEEE模型，評估未來我國電力供給規劃在不同情境下之3E與能源安全所可能面對之壓力與挑戰。
本研究主要結論：
1.現行政策規畫之電力供給規劃優勢在於務實且均衡，但能源安全風險較高。
2.短期內若全面廢除核能發電，社會各層面必須承擔之高度能源安全風險與高碳排之衝擊，若要採行此政策情境，則須重新檢討現行電力規劃之進程。
3.若我國最終將走向零核能政策，那麼現行核電廠延役為一個緩衝選擇，且此方案亦可改善基準情境部分能源安全規劃不足之處。
4.再生能源的發展需要發展緩衝期且後期具有規模經濟之特性，故在電力規劃中需更完善前瞻之規劃。
5.提升能源效率與積極面對我國二氧化碳目標的條件下，的確能有效使總能源使用與二氧化碳排放量下降，但全面提升能源效率與積極面對我國二氧化碳目標對於社會整體生活型態改變衝擊相當大，故應該對於此情境採取一更為嚴謹之評估態度。
6.本研究無提出最佳情境，且各情境皆無法達成國家碳排目標與降低能源安全風險。
7.更積極的發展再生能源、適度使用核能發電並且全面提升國家能源效率則能有效減緩我國能源安全風險並且可望達到我國二氧化碳排放目標。

關鍵字

能源安全 ； 多目標規劃 ； 產業關聯分析 ； 3E目標 ； 電力供給規劃

並列摘要

Because fossil fuel created unprecedented economic growth, the 20th century has been called the age of oil. All of the general energy policies and electricity plans are based on fossil fuel and concentrate on 3E (Energy, Economic and the Environment, 3E) balanced development. The of traditional 3E planning has been focused on ensuring energy accessibility, energy price affordability and carbon emission reduction to compliant with national overall sustainability target. Hence the National Sustainable Development Policy Guidelines emphasized 3E energy development path. This target has been incorporated into the final resolution of National Energy Conference in 2009, the New Energy Policies and Energy Development Policy Guidelines accordingly.
With the bumping situation of energy price growing, natural resources depleting, and environmental quality degradation traditional 3E planning are insufficient to cope with fast changing technologies in energy and electricity palnning. Recently the IEA, EU, USA and APEC started accentuating the importance of energy security. There are no concenter of energysecurity definitions. The definitions should be adapted to times, policy situations and policy targets. The evaluation indicators for the performance achieved depend on the targets and energy system characteristics of countries (or organizations). This study will integrate traditional 3E and energy security with Input-Output Analysis, Hybrid-Unit model and Multi-Objective Programming that establish a MultEEE model. MultEEE could estimate Taiwan electricity supply plan in the future. Moreover MultEEE infer the stress and challenges that 3E and energy security will face from different scenarios.
The conclusions of this research are as following:
1. The advantage of power supply plan in current policy is pragmatic and balanced but with higher energy security risk.
2. In the short period, all the aspects of society have to afford effects of higher energy security risk and carbon emission. So that taking this scenario review of the process of power supply plan in current policy is needed.
3. To The extension of existing nuclear power plant is a buffered option, if our energy policy will focus on non-nuclear scenario. And this scenario can improve the insufficiency of energy security in BAU.
4. The development of renewable energy needs buffering period, and renewable energy has economies of scale in later period. So the energy policy of supply side planing has to be frontier.
5. Rising energy efficiency and achieving CO2 emission target will reduce total energy use and CO2 emission. Rising energy efficiency and achieving CO2 emission target will change life style intensely, so taking this scenario need of serious evaluate.
6. There is no best scenario in this research, and none of the scenarios achieve the national CO2 emission target and reduce energy security risk.
7. Developing renewable energy positively, use nuclear power appropriately and rising energy efficiency contribute towards reducing energy security risk and achieving the national CO2 emission it hopes.

並列關鍵字

Multi-Objective Programming ； Input-Output Analysis ； 3E Targets ； Energy security ； Electricity Supply Plan

參考文獻

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