ASEAN economic and political integration: legal and institutional enquires into prospects for deep integration

The 2007 ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint specified a roadmap for accelerating the establishment of the AEC by 2015. To model itself on the European Union integration, ASEAN leaders agreed to transform ASEAN into a single market and production base with a free flow of goods, services, investments, capital and skilled labour. Nonetheless, given the huge disparities in economic development across different Member States, it is predictable that ASEAN might take a considerably longer time towards full integration, including transforming the current legal initiatives into the underpinnings envisaged under the AEC Blueprint. This thesis aims to identify the intensity of ASEAN integration. This is addressed under three themes namely (a) the current stage of integration in ASEAN, (b) indicators of regional integration and (c) the transformation of ASEAN towards deep integration. Under the first theme, the extent to which ASEAN integration has proceeded is investigated to provide theoretical foundations for the transformation of ASEAN deep integration. In particular, the legal indicators of ASEAN integration, including the impact of regional trade arrangements in goods, services and investments on ASEAN economic and political integration and the institutional indicators for ASEAN deep integration are examined to help policy-makers to understand and measure the complexity of integration at national and regional levels. Lastly, an analysis of ASEAN’s external trade arrangements with China, Japan and Korea aims to assess the feasibility of employing ASEAN+3 frameworks for a deeper integration. Literature reviews on integration theories, from political economy and legal perspectives to the morality of trade and regionalism, are utilized in this study. Case studies and statistical analyses are conducted to assess the likelihood of ASEAN following the EU integration model. Tables, pie charts, and line graphs are presented to emphasize the economic impact of existing export-oriented trade arrangements and consensus-based institutions on existing regional integration. The main results answering the three themes of ASEAN integration are established. Legalism in ASEAN has reached a medium level although its rulings are voluntary and are not binding. It is expected that ASEAN will achieve the middle stage of integration by 2015, which is similar to a European-style common market. The second result reveals that ASEAN, which is dominated by external and not intra-regional trade, might lose its economic independence in the long term. The third result indicates that ongoing co-operation in external free trade arrangements among the ASEAN and other countries in East Asia is an early indicator of integration at an advanced level. The author recommends the formation of an ASEAN customs union which, in the process of deep integration, can reduce trade-diverting effects and enhance the international representation of ASEAN. It is also recommended that after the completion of a single market in 2015, ASEAN acts as the pathfinder in building the East Asia Community to match the exact justice and human necessity of trade and to be independent from external influence.

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