- 學位論文
Analysis of development control statistics in Hong Kong : evaluating factors of success and zone separation
Analysis of development control statistics in Hong Kong : evaluating factors of success and zone separation
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並列摘要
(Uncorrected OCR) Abstract of Thesis Titled ’Analysis of Development Control Statistics in Hong Kong: Evaluating Factors of Success and Zone Separation’ Submitted by Yung Ping for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy At the University of Hong Kong in December 2004 ABSTRACT This thesis provides useful insights into and facts about the present planning and zoning system of Hong Kong and promotes the better use of non-aggregate statistical models in the planning field. This thesis articulates the two conditions inherent in the proposition that the local statutory planning system is a ’black-box’. The first condition that outsiders could not figure out what the system is about, is refuted since the decision making behaviour of the Town Planning Board can be modelled with some general characteristics of planning applications and with some exogenous economic factors. The second condition, that the Town Planning Board has full knowledge of what it is doing, is also refuted because the present zoning system has many instance of non-separation. As the most comprehensive statistical study on the planning statistics in Hong Kong, this thesis presents and analyzes the information that ought to have been published by the planning authority using a statistical model. xlviii This thesis documents planning statistics of 13,163 planning applications that spanned the period from January 1975 to December 2002. In view of the theoretical problems and technical errors in the previous studies, this thesis also analyzes non-aggregate planning statistics using the probit model, a discrete choice model which has been accepted as a suitable method for presenting and analyzing planning statistics and testing two groups of refutable hypotheses which operationalize the ’black-box’ proposition. The first group of six classes of operational hypothesis identifies the factors of success/failure (which include location, scale, land use, zone, government land use policy, and time). The results of this group of hypothesis reveal the decision making behaviours of the Town Planning Board. The second group of three classes of operational hypothesis is about zone separation, which is measured with respect to such common land uses as ’commercial,’ ’school,’ ’massage,’ ’village type house,’ ’container,’ ’open storage,’ ’office’ and ’residential’ uses. The probabilities of obtaining planning permissions for these uses in the classes of zones selected are then ranked and the reasons behind them are suggested. The results of the this group of hypothesis show that there are xlix many instances of non-separation in the present zoning system, which means that the Town Planning Board does not have full knowledge of what it has been doing. In other words, the local planning system is not quite a ’black-box’ in the sense that it knows more than others about its own decision patterns.