航線航班預測模式之建構與應用

Development and Application of Models for Forecasting Flight Frequencies in Air Routes

黃沛芊(Pei-Chien Huang)

指導教授 ： 汪進財

國立交通大學/管理學院/運輸與物流管理學系/碩士(2018年)

摘要

近年來亞洲及中東地區航空客運市場成長迅速，開發潛在市場以闢駛新航點或增加現有航線航班數，對航空公司及機場當局而言極為重要，然而過去少有全面性探討這類議題的相關文獻，因此本研究旨在探究直飛航線與直飛航班數的影響因素，並建立模型應用於開發潛在航線市場。本研究運用Innovata 2016年航班資料庫及蒐集合適的變數，建立零膨脹負二項迴歸模型，研究結果發現起迄國家使用相同語言或有殖民關係、機場國際運量、機場所屬國家的綜合競爭力、起點機場基地航空公司機隊數、區域航線之迄點國家提供免簽待遇、機場為多機場區域主要機場、航線上有低成本航空營運、航線上共掛航班數占比對直飛航班數有正面且顯著的影響；而航線距離、位在多機場區域的機場之鄰近機場數、航線上樞紐機場個數則對直飛航班數有負面且顯著的影響。整體而言，模型解釋了84.99%的樣本，顯示模型足以應用在開發潛在市場，航空公司及機場當局可考量自身營運條件及目的地特性，進行後續的運用。

關鍵字

直飛航線 ； 直飛航班數 ； 潛在航線市場 ； 零膨脹負二項迴歸模型

並列摘要

In recent years, air passenger market in Asia and the Middle East have growing rapidly. It is important for airline and airport operaters to find potential markets to develop new air routes or increase flight frequencies in existing route. However, these issues are lack of comprehensive researches. Thus, this study aims to explore the factors affecting direct connections and direct flights, and build an econometric model to apply to the development of potential markets. Using Innovata 2016 flightdata and collected appropriate variables, Zero-inflated Negative Binomial Regression model was established. The results showed that departure country use the same language/have strong colonial links with arrival country, international passenger traffic at the airport, the competitiveness index of the country where the airport is located, fleet sizes of aiport-based airlines, passengers from departure country do not require a visa to visit arrival country in regional route, the primary airport in multi-airport area, low cost carriers operate in the route, and code-sharing flights rate have positive and significant influence on direct flights. In contrast, the number of airports adjacent to the airport in the multi-airport area and the number of hub airports have negative and significant effects. In general, the model explained 84.99% of the sample, it means that the model could be applied in the development of potential market. Airlines and airport authorities may consider their own operating conditions and characteristics of destination for subsequent application.

並列關鍵字

Direct connections ； Direct flights ； Potential route markets ； Zero-inflated negative binomial regression model

參考文獻

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