新藥上市核准宣告對台灣生技製藥產業股價影響之研究

The Impact of the Announcement of New drug License on the Stock Prices of Taiwan’s Biomed Pharmaceutical Industry.

王俊元(Chun-Yuan Wang)

指導教授 ： 蔡璧徽

國立交通大學/管理學院/管理學院管理科學學程/碩士(2019年)

摘要

全球藥品市場在2017年發展規模約11,351億美元，且依據經濟部生技醫藥產業發展推動小組統計，我國生技醫藥產業2015年民間投資金額為484.93億元，較2014年微幅成長6％，其中投資金額最高的正是製藥領域，達到207.9億元。而生技醫藥產業正是台灣未來新興經濟產業，對我國經濟舉足輕重。本研究目的為探討新藥預告臨床三期、臨床三期試驗結果及通過上市核准之消息，是否會傳遞給投資人「台灣生技製藥公司的價值提升」之「資訊信號」，導致我國生技製藥產業股票價格出現異常報酬。藉由事件日研究法，本研究以2012年至2018年間以H公司及C新藥公司的「新藥在臨床三期試驗到上市核准之相關事件」訂定為研究事件，以台灣之生技製藥產業為研究主體，實證結果如下：
1. 新藥「申請臨床三期試驗之宣告」事件會導致台灣生技製藥產業產生負向異常報酬。
2. 新藥「臨床三期試驗失敗」事件會導致台灣生技製藥產業產生負向異常報酬。
3. 新藥「臨床三期試驗成功」事件會導致台灣生技製藥產業產生正向異常報酬。
4. 新藥「通過上市核准之宣告」事件會導致台灣生技製藥產業產生正向異常報酬。
5. 新藥「臨床三期試驗成功」事件發生後台灣生技製藥產業的異常報酬，會顯著的大於新藥「臨床三期試驗失敗」事件發生後台灣生技製藥產業的異常報酬。

關鍵字

生技製藥產業 ； 新藥 ； 臨床三期試驗 ； 異常報酬

並列摘要

This study extends signaling theory to research on Taiwan Biopharmaceutical New drug approved to enter the market. This investigation aims to investigate the market response to the announcement of new drug clinical phase III trial and the new drug in Taiwanese Biotechnology pharmaceutical industry. The empirical findings are as follow:
1. Taiwanese Biopharmaceutical stocks’ abnormal returns are negative during the announcement of new drug application for clinical phase III trial.
2. There is no significant market reaction in Taiwanese Biopharmaceutical industry if the new drug clinical phase III trial failure was announced which appears to be a fizzle.
3. Taiwanese Biopharmaceutical stocks’ abnormal returns are positive if the new drug clinical phase III trial successful was announced.
4. Taiwanese Biopharmaceutical stocks’ abnormal returns are positive if the new drug through the marketing license was announced.
5. Taiwanese Biopharmaceutical stocks’ abnormal returns will be significantly different between the successful and unsuccessful incidents of the new drug clinical phase III trial.

並列關鍵字

Biopharmaceutical industry ； new drug ； clinical phase ； abnormal returns

參考文獻

英文文獻

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