結合納許議價賽局與資料包絡分析法之最佳合併對象選擇模式

DEA-Based Nash Bargaining Approach for Merger Target Selection

林紀綱(Ji-Gang Lin)

指導教授 ： 張宗勝

國立交通大學/管理學院/運輸與物流管理學系/碩士(2019年)

摘要

企業合併一直以來皆為企業追求成長的重要手段之一，企業體希望藉由合併而能有效率提升與成本降低等等合併效益的產生。然而，眾多研究發現，雖然成功的合併案確實可以為企業體帶來利益，但合併案的失敗率亦不容小覷；因此，合併前的審慎評估與分析顯得格外重要。
在現存文獻中，存在著不少以資料包絡分析法執行合併案事前分析的研究存在；然而，此類文獻中，尚未見有將合併時被認為至關重要的併購價格因素考慮在中的研究。有鑑於此，本論文提出了一組以資料包絡分析法為基礎，結合了納許議價賽局理論的數學規劃模式，除了預估合併案的潛在效益外，更將合併時的價格因素納於分析之中。而模式可分為分析水平合併的水平整合模式，與分析垂直合併的垂直整合模式；出價公司可以藉由此模式預估與各候選合併對象的淨購併價值，並以此為各候選目標做排序，做為合併對象選擇時的參考。而在模式提出後，本論文則是建立兩個範例為水平整合模式進行測式，而其中一份資料為取自台灣證券業16間公司的實際資料；而垂直整合模式基於資料取得可能性的緣故則以虛擬之資料做測試。兩模式藉由資料的測試進一步驗證了模式的可行性。

關鍵字

資料包絡分析法 ； 納許議價賽局 ； 水平合併 ； 垂直合併 ； 合併對象選擇

並列摘要

Merger has been a popular tool of pursuing growth for companies for a long time. Company expected the synergy comes from merger like efficiency enhance and cost saving; however, many studies have shown that the failure rate of merger is extremely high. Hence, conducting an effective analysis before merger is crucially important.
There are several studies that propose model using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to do ex-ante merger analysis already, but none of them consider in the price factor of a merger, which is believed as a key factor for a successful merger. This thesis proposed two DEA-based models that integrate the Nash Barraging Game theory into it; one is for horizontal merger, and the other is for vertical merger. Through the model, a decision-making unit that want to conduct a merger, i.e. the bidding company, can calculate the appraised net acquisition value (NAV) for each candidate merger target to establish the ranking list and select the best one to acquire. The proposed approaches are tested by numerical data in the thesis, and one of them is the real data of 16 Security Companies in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) ； Nash Bargaining Game ； Horizontal Mergers ； Vertical Mergers ； Merger Target Selection

參考文獻

外文參考文獻

An, Q., Wen, Y., Ding, T., & Li, Y. (2019). Resource sharing and payoff allocation in a three-stage system: Integrating network DEA with the Shapley value method. Omega, 85, 16-25.

Andersen, J. L., & Bogetoft, P. (2007). Gains from quota trade: theoretical models and an application to the Danish fishery. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 34(1), 105-127.

Banker, R. D., Charnes, A., & Cooper, W. W. (1984). Some Models for Estimating Technical and Scale Inefficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis. Management Science, 30(9), 1078-1092.

Banker, R. D., & Thrall, R. M. (1992). Estimation of returns to scale using data envelopment analysis. European Journal of Operational Research, 62(1), 74-84.