國際航空貨運業在亞洲市場競爭模式之構建

Modeling Competition of International Air Cargo Carriers in the Asian Markets

蕭國洲(Guo-Chou Shiao)

指導教授 ： 黃承傳

國立交通大學/管理學院/交通運輸研究所/博士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6842/NCTU.2010.00175

摘要

亞洲國際航空貨運量近20年來的快速成長，除了促使全貨運業者陸續加入航空貨運服務外，混合型業者也正面因應全貨運業者的挑戰。航空公司之貨運航線航次、機型規劃、費率與航空公司間之競爭，有密切的互動關係。本研究以國際航空公司為研究對象，亞洲地區的航空貨運為研究範圍，分析航空公司在面臨競爭經營環境下，如何因應相關外在條件(如市場客、貨需求變動)及其他競爭航空公司之競爭策略與競爭行為，以規劃航空貨運航線之最適營運航次與機型，並探討市場均衡特性。
本研究建構兩組非合作賽局理論模式分別處理單一航線市場及路網市場不同情境下的競爭。前者考量目前雙邊航空服務協議體制下所形成的航線市場競爭，路網競爭模式則是分析在取消航線市場進出管制情況下之路網市場競爭。依據個體選擇模式，合理假定業者的獲利取決於其服務所帶給托運人的效用，業者經由選定其航機種類、航班及費率的方式來競爭貨運量，並應用解析性方式來建構兩類業者之航線航班規劃及成本模式。在考量相關限制下，本研究係以數學規劃方法來建立模式，並以數值計算方式求取模式均衡解。此外，為預測短期臺灣國際航空貨運市場運量，本研究亦應用重力模式架構，收集近年實際資料校估臺灣桃園國際機場之主要貨運定期航線運量模式。
本研究以台灣國際航空貨運航線市場的實際資料進行案例分析，驗證本研究模式的可操作性。研究結果發現：(1)混合型業者族群在案例中為市場優勢者，尤其短程航線市場；(2)相較於可用腹艙容量較豐沛之客運航線，全貨運航空公司傾向著重在需要大量貨運空間需求的航線；(3)航線貨運需求、客運需求、全貨運業者聚集規模及機場時間帶的可獲得性等因素都會影響航線市場競爭；(4)路網競爭模式可擴充用以分析樞紐機場選擇問題。另依據臺灣桃園國際機場之主要貨運定期航線貨運運量模式之校估結果發現：人口、航空貨運費率以及三項用來代表特定經貿關係之虛擬變數(大中華經濟圈虛擬變數、開放天空協議簽署之虛擬變數及殖民關係虛擬變數)是影響臺灣航空貨運運量的主要因子。
總結來說，本研究所提出之分析架構，可用以預估及分析混合型業者及全貨運業者共存之競爭環境下不同業者之最佳營運策略，提供相關企業營運規劃之參考。

關鍵字

航空貨運市場 ； 賽局理論 ； 競爭

並列摘要

Due to increasingly fast growth of air cargo transport service demand in the Asian international cargo market, not only all-cargo airlines have been expanding their services in Asia but combination carriers would like to compete keenly with all cargo carriers. The entry of all-cargo airlines would result in a price and/or frequency competition with existing service on the specific route market. This study deals with the competition for international cargo service between combination and all-cargo carriers in the Asian markets.
This study considers a market composed of combination and all-cargo airlines and proposes two sets of models dealing with the competition on a single route and at the network level respectively. To place the airlines’ decisions in a competitive context, a game-theoretic approach has been developed in the form of a non-cooperative game. Using analytical approaches, the models for planning frequency and calculating operation costs are set up. Optimization models in the form of mathematical programming are developed and the iterative process of backward induction is used to solve the proposed models. Through seeking the solutions of the problems, the equilibrium outcome and best-response strategies of participating airlines are predicted. Furthermore, to predict the cargo shipment demand on Taiwan’s route markets, an air cargo flow model of international routes is developed based on the panel data of air cargo services on scheduled routes at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport during the years 2004-2007.
The case studies are presented to illustrate the application of the proposed models using data available from Taiwan international route markets and empirical industrial data. The results include that (1) combination carriers appear to be the dominators in both two case markets, especially on short-haul routes; (2) all-cargo carriers tend to focus their attention on those routes where there are particularly heavy demand for cargo space; (3) the competition of airlines for general air cargo service are affected by cargo demand in the market, air travel demand on passenger routes, the operation scale of all-cargo carriers and the availability of time slots at the airports for all-cargo operators’ flights; (4) the network competition model could be expanded to analyze the hub location choice problems. Moreover, The empirical route demand model indicates that population, air freight rate and three dummy variables, including the regional economic bloc of the “Chinese Circle”, the Open Sky Agreements and long established colonial links, are the key determinants of international air cargo flows from/to Taiwan.
In conclusion, this study proposed a framework to predict and analyze the best-response strategies of airlines under the environment where combination and all-cargo carriers coexist. These results could provide as useful information for international air cargo airlines in operational planning.

並列關鍵字

Air cargo market ； Game theory ； Competition

參考文獻

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