圖書館實體館藏資源需求評估模型－以臺北縣公共圖書館為例

Forecasting Models for Books Collection in Public Library：case by Taking Taipei County

許峪嵐(Yu-Lan Hsue)

指導教授 ： 黃明居

國立交通大學/資訊學院/資訊學院數位圖書資訊學程/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6842/NCTU.2010.00177

摘要

本研究針對公共圖書館作分析，並以臺北縣鄉鎮市為例，採用時間序列的計量模型推估圖書館館藏借閱量、迴歸分析模型推估館藏量平均水準、水庫設計評估理論推估館藏需求量，藉此建立圖書館實體館藏資源需求評估模型以供圖書館館藏資源分配決策參考。
由實際統計觀察發現，臺北縣公共圖書館存在城鄉差距，公共圖書館資源與人口密度有關，本研究以時間序列作探討，透過迴歸分析加入人口密度參數來建議實體圖書館評估模型；透過最小平方法與水庫設計評估理論用於館藏需求推估，有效的將圖書館藏需求量與館藏流通交互計算，得出館藏流通未來的需求概估值與最大需求量。
圖書館館藏資源有效調配是圖書館營運須探討的問題，透過有效的館藏評估分配有限的預算經費，以使預算執行效益最佳化。研究建議模型，可提供圖書館決策人員用於次一時期預算分配比重之評估決策參考及圖書館資源合理性分配的依據。

關鍵字

圖書館資源 ； 時間序列 ； 累積曲線 ； 尖峰序列 ； 連續峰值

並列摘要

This research focuses on public library to analyze the example is cities in Taipei County. Adopting "time series model " estimates library loan amount and regression analysis with "Least Square " to estimate library stock, the theory of Reservoir Design uses to estimate library demand of stock. According to this establishes library real demand of stocks’ information of evaluation model to provide decisive consultation to library stocks’ distribution.
Observed by the actual statistics，public library in Taipei County has urban-rural gap. Public library has related population density. This research follows time series to investigate explore, utilizing regression analysis mixes with population density parameter to provide suggestions for practical library’s evaluation model. Using "Least Square " and "Reservoir Design theory "estimates demand of stock in library which can be efficient to calculate between demand stock and stock flow in library. The result of the calculation will provide approximation and maximum demand.
Library resources can be efficient to distribute which can be as explorative question in library operation. Using efficient library stock to allocate limited budget, furthermore, the budget can be executed and used in optimization condition. The research suggestive model can offer library staffs of decision maker the proportion of budget allocation to evaluate decisions and consultations and library resources reasonable foundation allocation for next year.

並列關鍵字

library resources ； time series ； Sequent-peak algorithm ； Mass curve

參考文獻

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