汽機車持有與使用模式之探討-以澳門地區為例

Modeling Household Car and Motorcycle Ownership and Usage: A Case of Macao

林虹伶(Hung-Ling Lin)

指導教授 ： 黃家耀

國立交通大學/管理學院/運輸科技與管理學系/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6842/NCTU.2011.00210

摘要

近年來隨著澳門地區社會經濟高速發展，生活水準提升，社會環境快速變遷，人口和旅客數量也急遽增加，對交通的需求與日俱增，導致家戶汽機車持有率逐年上升。過去認為機車為進入汽車時代之暫時性交通工具，終究會隨著汽車量增加而逐漸淘汰，然而回顧澳門地區汽機車數量成長過程，機車數量並未因汽車量增加而逐漸減少，相反地，機車之數量仍然伴隨著小客車數量增加而成長。減少持有私人車輛對於發展一個完善的交通系統是主要目標之一，且為了評估政策對控制車輛持有的有效性，透過模式了解澳門地區汽機車持有與使用狀況。
本研究使用2010澳門居民交通出行調查數據庫資料進行分析，當中包含家戶屬性，個人屬性和一天行程等資料。並使用多項羅吉特模式，建立家戶汽車及機車持有模式；澳門地區內由於地窄人稠，機車相對於汽車佔有較多的優勢，也因家戶單位具有經濟及生活共同性，家戶內持有或使用私人運具會受到其他家戶成員的影響。結果發現澳門地區之機車持有和使用，除家戶因素外，和個人因素也有很大關係；故又發展出個人機車使用模式，嘗試分析機車使用者的特性。
由校估結果得知家戶小孩數和家中總收入高與汽車持有正相關，而居住高人口密度區域的家戶擁有汽車的機會較低，主要原因為停車空間較少。澳門地區分為本島及離島兩部份，當工作地與居住地須橫跨兩地時，對於汽車的需求較高，汽車持有機率也相對較高，機車在人口密度高之區域具有高度便利性，較受人口密度高之區域居民喜愛。機車持有模式不具有高度之解釋能力，顯示機車持有與家戶相關性不高，與個人因素方面較具相關性，故提出個人機車使用模式探討個人因素影響機車持有之特性。個人機車使用模式校估結果發現，19~24歲年齡層較可能為機車使用者，且年齡層越高，使用機車情形越少，由於機車持有成本較低，個人收入部分顯示大部分有收入者，皆有能力持有機車，因此在政策面可利用教育宣導青少年人口，提倡使用大眾運輸之觀念，藉以抑制未來機車增長。

關鍵字

汽機車持有 ； 個人機車使用 ； 個體選擇模式 ； 羅吉特模式 ； 澳門地區

並列摘要

Macao has been enjoying the rapid economic growth since the last few decades, together with huge changes in the social environment, population and land use pattern. As demand for mobility increases with income of people and development of the city, the rapid increase of transportation demand and purchase power for private vehicle causes the traffic congestion problems more serious. Previous studies suggested that motorcycles were temporary transportation modes before entering the era of private cars, and motorcycles may phase out gradually with increasing in the number of cars. However, the private vehicle ownerships in Macao are growing, and the number of cars and motorcycles are increasing over the past years. Reducing the private vehicle ownership and usage is one of the key challenges in the development of a sustainable transportation system. However, to evaluate the effectiveness of a policy, it is necessary to understand the factors that influence the preferences and behavior of travelers.
In this study, we analyze the database of a travel characteristics survey of Macao, which includes the household attributes, personal attributes and travel itineraries. A discrete choice approach is used to estimate the number of private vehicles that a household would own. A Multinomial Logit Model is used to formulate the choice behavior of household car ownership and household motorcycle ownership. Macao is a high population density area, and both private cars and motorcycles are popular transportation modes. Family members of a household living together may affect the travel behavior of each others, and the level of vehicle ownership is commonly considered to be a household decision. This study further finds that the motorcycle ownership is not only a household decision but also related to the personal attributes of the motorcycle rider, therefore a motorcycle usage model at the individual personal level is also proposed to investigate the characteristics of motorcycle riders.
The result of the estimated models suggests that income has positive effect on both car and motorcycle ownership. Car ownership level is higher at lower population density at residential location, whereas motorcycle is more popular at high population density area. The model of individual motorcycle usage found that the age group of 19 to 24 is more likely to be motorcycle users, and the usage level decreases with the age group. As the motorcycles have low holding costs, most of people have the ability to own a motorcycle. Therefore, in order to control the growth of motorcycle ownership in the future, policies such as promotion of use of public transportation would be more effective if focusing on the youths.

並列關鍵字

Car and motorcycle ownership ； Motorcycle usage for individual ； Discrete choice models ； Logit model ； Macao

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