股利支付率與未來盈餘成長關係之研究

Research on the Relationship between Dividend Payout Ratio and Future Earnings Growth

張惟荏(Wei-Jen Chang)

指導教授 ： 王淑芬

國立交通大學/管理學院/財務金融研究所/碩士(2017年)

摘要

許多文獻證實傳統上的想法，較高的股利支付率會造成公司未來盈餘成長下降。但是在過去這幾十年，這個想法一直被挑戰，有學者證實市場的股利支付率與未來盈餘成長的關係是正的。本研究探討這關係是否存在於個別公司上，也利用三種敏感度分析去測試，如：分群、特定時間、分產業別，最後證實股利支付率與未來盈餘成長具有顯著的正關係。

關鍵字

股利支付率 ； 未來盈餘成長

並列摘要

Conventional wisdom associated high dividend payout ratio with weak future earnings growth, which was supported by various academic studies. However, within these decades, this perception has been opposed by Arnott and Asness. They found the relationship between aggregate payout ratio of the market and future earnings growth was positive. This paper future investigates the relationship between dividend payout ratio and future earnings growth at the corporation-level. We also carried out three sensitivity tests to confirms that this positive relationship is robust to the effects of specific time periods and industries.

並列關鍵字

dividend payout ratio ； future earnings growth

參考文獻

Ajanthan, A. (2013). The relationship between dividend payout and firm profitability: A study of listed hotels and restaurant companies in Sri Lanka. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 3(6)

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Amidu, M. (2007). How does dividend policy affect performance of the firm on Ghana stock Exchange. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 4(2), pp. 104-112

Arnott, R.D. & Asness, C.S. (2003). Surprise! Higher Dividends = Higher Earnings Growth. Financial Analysts Journal, 59(1), pp. 70-87.

Bernartzi, S., Michaely, R., & Thaler, R. (1997). Do changes in dividends signal the future or the past? The Journal of Finane, 52(3), pp. 1007-1034.