公車即時資訊服務對乘客使用公車行為之影響分析

Effects of Real-Time Bus Information Services on the Passenger Behavior

吳東凌(Tung-Ling Wu)

指導教授 ： 王晉元

國立交通大學/管理學院/運輸與物流管理學系/博士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6842/NCTU.2015.00804

摘要

由於公車資訊系統的建置與後續維運都需要龐大的經費預算支持，因此公車資訊服務系統的效益評估就顯得非常重要，因為這會影響主管機關與公車業者對後續預算編列的態度。本研究以台北市公車資訊服務啟用後8年，對乘客進行公車使用行為的回顧調查，並提出「乘客將公車系統當成主要交通工具的期間長度」概念，作為評估公車資訊服務效益衡量的新指標。本研究有兩項主要目的：首先我們想確認提供公車資訊服務是否有助於延長乘客將公車系統當成主要交通工具的期間長度，並且進一步分析影響乘客放棄使用公車的關鍵因素有哪些；其次，我們期待能夠依據前述分析結果，提出推廣公共運輸以及公車資訊服務的策略和建議，讓主管機關在有限的經費預算下，能夠進行更有效的規劃。
本研究透過存活理論以及邏輯斯迴歸模式進行相關分析與各項重要參數校估。透過存活分析結果發現，有使用公車資訊服務乘客以公車為主要交通工具的平均時間，相較未使用乘客延長了12.36個月，而且有使用公車資訊服務乘客放棄使用公車的風險只有未使用者的22.6%。因此本研究推論使用公車資訊服務不僅能夠延長乘客持續將公車當成主要交通工具的時間長度，更能有效降低乘客放棄使用公車的風險。此外，本研究也發現乘客的教育水準、職業、平均候車時間以及公車使用頻率等變數，都會影響乘客使用公車的期間長度。在邏輯斯迴歸模式的分析中，本研究發現學生、男性、低學歷以及年長乘客相對使用公車資訊服務的勝算比較低。
綜合上述分析結果，本研究提出多項具體建議，包括主管機關應持續編列預算，維持提供公車資訊服務，因為這不僅有助於延長乘客將公車當成主要交通工具的時間長度，更可以提高公車乘載率。此外，本研究也發現18歲以上學生族群不僅放棄使用公車的機率高，他們使用公車資訊服務的比例也比較低，因此主管機關應特別重視此類族群。整體而言，本研究成果不僅可以為公車資訊服務系統提供更具學術基礎的效益分析，也可協助主管機關在後續推廣公車資訊服務時做更有效的策略規劃。

關鍵字

公車動態資訊服務 ； 效益評估 ； 存活分析 ； 邏輯斯回歸

並列摘要

The development and maintenance of bus Information services (BIS) systems represents a substantial investment; therefore, public transport agencies must be sure that the benefits of BIS justify these capital expenditures. This study measured the service efficiency of the BIS in Taipei, eight years after its inception, by studying passengers feedback and analyzing the duration for which passengers use buses as their major mode of transportation. Our objectives are: 1) to understand whether providing BIS encourages commuters to take buses as their major mode of transportation. We further analyzed what factors lead passengers to stop commuting on buses. 2) Based on the results of the aforementioned analysis, we intended to propose strategies to promote and enhance the efficiency of public transit and BIS within budget limitations.
We conducted analysis and estimated parameters using survival theory and logistic regression models. Survival theory results showed that on average, passengers using BIS tended to use public transportation 12.36 months longer than those who did not use BIS. The risk of BIS users ceasing their use of buses was 22.6% that of BIS non-users. We therefore inferred that BIS lead to passengers using bus travel as their major mode of transportation for a longer period of time, and reduce the risk that they will stop commuting on buses. We also found that the duration for which passengers use buses as their major mode of transportation is affected by their level of education, occupation, average waiting time for buses, and the bus usage frequency. From logistic regression results, we found that students, males, the elderly, and passengers with lower education levels were relatively less likely to utilize BIS.
This study recommends that public transport authorities continue to budget for bus information systems, which promote buses as major mode of transportation and increase bus occupancy rates. As students are more likely to give up on bus travel and less likely to utilize bus information services, authorities should focus their efforts on students 18 years old and over. In addition to providing an academic basis for analyzing the efficiency of BIS, this study can also assist public transport authorities in improving the strategic planning of BIS.

並列關鍵字

Bus Information Service, BIS ； Benefits Evaluation ； Survival Analysis ； Logistic Regression

參考文獻

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