原油探勘生產行業之企業價值評估--以中國海洋石油公司為例

隨著中國、印度等新興市場的需求不斷提昇，商品市場再次受到矚目，商品型公司也再次成為投資的重點。商品型公司的企業價值評估，與一般公司極不相同，主要是因為商品型公司的企業價值受到外部因子--商品價格極大的影響，而公司的其他內部因子影響相對較小。針對商品型公司的價值評估的特殊性，美國學者Damodaran提出兩個解決方法：方法一是計算企業的正常價格(normalized price)和正常盈餘(normalized earnings)，並依此推估企業價值。方法二是以商品的期貨價格來當成對未來價格的預測。本研究依照Damodaran提出的兩種方法，以一階段、二階段現金流量法對中國海洋石油公司做企業價值評估。希望藉由實際的個案，對處於快速成長期的原油探勘生產公司的價值評估做系統性的分析。個案研究的結果與發現包括： 1. 中海油的營業利潤與實現油價呈高度相關，因此可以用油價來推估未來的營業利潤。 2. 一階段現金流量折現法可快速提供評價結果，但因忽略企業的成長價值，會造成企業價值低估。 3. 二階段現金流量折現法可較精確估計成長期的油氣探勘公司價值，但使用期貨價格做為未來價格的估計，可能會帶進期貨價格的巨幅波動。要避免這樣的波動，最好在買賣現股的同時進行期貨避險。油氣公司探明儲量的價值評估通常需要以實質選擇權的方式來進行，因此建議後續的研究者可以針對這個部份再加以探討，以期使整個油氣探勘公司的企業價值評估能更形完整。

關鍵字

企業評價；商品型公司；現金流量折現法

並列摘要

With the increasing demands from emerging countries like China and India, the commodity markets have been on the focal point of investment again. Valuation of commodity companies is very different from valuation of other companies-mostly because the value of commodity companies is heavily affected by an external factor i.e. the commodity prices. Other internal factors have relatively lower impacts on the value of commodity companies. Two methods were suggested by Damodaran to proceed for the valuation of commodity companies. The first one is to estimate the normalize price of the commodity and normalized earnings of that company. Based on the normalized figures, we can estimate the value of the commodity company. The second method is to use the futures prices of the commodity as the forecast prices of the commodity. In this study, we follow the methods suggested by Damodaran and use the discount cash flow method to value the fast-growing oil exploration and production company, CNOOC Limited with the purpose of demonstrating the valuation of fast-growing commodity companies. The findings and conclusions are: 1. The net incomes of CNOOC Ltd. are highly related to the oil prices. Based on this relationship, we can estimate the future net incomes from our forecast of future oil prices. 2. The 1-stage FCFF method provides a quick solution but it ignores the growth value of the fast-growing commodity company. 3. The 2-stage FCFF method provides a better estimation of the firm value. However, using the futures prices may bring in the embedded volatility to the valuation. It is recommended to hedge this risk in the futures market. In our discount cash flow valuation, we estimated the value of the operating assets and the value of the proved reserves was not considered. For an even better valuation, we suggest to include the real option valuation of the proved reserves.