利用多期複合序列選擇權評價模型評價房地產開發專案：以湖北某房地產開發項目爲例

Valuating land development project by n-fold sequential compound option pricing model: A case study of Real Estate development in Hubei province

吳山川(Shan-Chuan Wu)

指導教授 ： 黃玉霖

國立交通大學/工學院/土木工程系所/碩士(2017年)

摘要

衆所周知房地產業是高收益產業，但其伴隨而來的高風險特別是財務風險應又值得我們高度警惕。如何合理的評估房地產開發專案的財務風險，並積極管控風險對土地開發公司是極爲重要的。
現今，房地產土地開發多是以多期開發的模式進行的。只有對每一期的開發案的可行性進行謹慎細緻的分析，才能更好的應對投資風險等問題。但是，傳統房地產投資分析中採用的現金流量法常常會忽視不同期工程的差異，因此難以合理的評價多期房地產開發案。
多期複合選擇權評價模型將多期房地產開發案視爲一個複合選擇權，爲解決複雜的多期房地產開發案評價問題提供了一個較好的解決方法，使得此種複雜的問題能得到相對合理的解。本文將以此模型運用於實際的多期房地產開發專案評價之中，爲實務之應用提供幫助和借鑑。

關鍵字

房地產開發投資案 ； 專案評價 ； 多層複合選擇權評價模型

並列摘要

Real estate is known as a high-yield industry, but its attendant high risk, especially financial risk should be on high alert. How to reasonably assess the financial risks of real estate development projects, and actively control the risk of land development companies is extremely important.
Nowadays, real estate land development is based on multi-phase development mode. Only when the feasibility of each period is carefully analyzed, the investment risks and other issues can be better deal with. However, the cash flow method used in traditional real estate investment analysis often ignores the differences between phases, and It is difficult to reasonably evaluate the multi-phase real estate development case.
The n-fold sequential compound option pricing model considers multi-phase real estate development case as a compound option, and it provides a better solution to the complex multi-period real estate development evaluation, which makes this complex issue reasonably solved. This paper will use this model in an actual multi-phase real estate development case, in order to get a reasonable answer for the practical.

並列關鍵字

real estate development ； financial evaluation ； n-fold sequential compound option

參考文獻

梁仁旭，土地選擇權時間價值比之研究，都市與計畫，第23卷第四期，pp371-386，2005。

Huang, Y.L. & Pi, C.C., “Valuation of multi-stage BOT projects involving dedicated asset investments a sequential compound option approach”, 2009.

Williams, Joseph T., "Real Estate Development as an Option ", Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol.4, pp.191-208, 1991.

Trigeorgis L., "Real Option: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation", Cambridge, Mass. MIT Press, 1996.

Williams, T.J., "Real estate development as an option", Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol4, pp191–208, 1991.