以貝斯模型決定新產品的初始上市價格與上市期間長度

Determining Introductory Prices and the Planning Horizons of New Products by the Bass Model

邱一哲(I-Che Chiu)

指導教授 ： 葉英傑

國立中央大學/管理學院/工業管理研究所/碩士(2006年)

摘要

新產品是否能成功推出，是企業競爭優勢的來源。我們應當針對目標顧客的消費習性，價格敏感度，制定適當的定價策略，決定最適的初始上市價格與上市期間長度，以求產品上市有限期間內，能獲取最大利益。
本研究以貝斯擴散模型，運用3+1階段定價方法擬出最佳定價決策。在市場環境的假設條件確定下，先不考慮產品成本，使用Hamilton（計算各時間點價格的波動）及最大利潤目標式，求出最適上市價格。兩者的確定，可以進而求出新產品價格路徑與銷售曲線。再加入產品成本與學習效果於最大利潤目標式，求出更精確的新產品價格路徑與銷售曲線。最後，視產品初始價格與上市期間為決策變數，先找到價格反轉點，設立從短期到長期的上市期間共六個水準，且市場彈性低與高共兩個水準，從兩個相異的市場彈性各六組數據中數值分析，根據總利潤或平均年利潤兩種方式決定具有不同市場彈性時新產品最適的初始上市價格與上市期間長度，企業以此制定新產品的最適定價策略。

關鍵字

定價策略 ； 貝斯模型 ； 新產品 ； 擴散模式

並列摘要

The new products can be succeeded in entering the market, is the source of enterprise''s competition advantage. We should produce the innovative products in accordance with our goal customers’ purchasing behaviors and their price sensitivity. We make the proper pricing tactics, in order to obtain the results of the greatest interests in limited duration of products.
This research aims at using the Bass diffusion model, and spends 3+1 stage pricing methods to acquire the optimal pricing decision. Under the assumptions－ the market environment is confirmed, we don’t consider the cost of products first, use Hamilton (calculate the fluctuations of prices of each time) and the maximum profit objective function, to obtain the optimal introductory price for the new product. When the two of above are sure, we could trace the optimal price path and the sales curve. After that, we take the cost of products and the learning curve parameter into the maximum profit objective function in order to offer the optimal price path and the sales curve of the innovative product accurately. Finally, the introductory price and the duration of the product are decision variables. We find the transition point of the pricing pattern to start with, then set up from a short-term to long-term amounted to six levels and the market elasticity from low to high amounts to two levels. We observe the Numerical Results from every six groups of data of two different types of market elasticity. We determine introductory prices and planning horizons of new products according to the gross profit or the annual gross profit when the innovative products have to enter into different types of market elasticity.

並列關鍵字

Bass Model ； Pricing Strategy ； New Product ； Diffusion

參考文獻

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