防汛搶險器材調派最佳決策模式之研究

The Study of a Model for Optimizing Flood Control and Flooding Emergency Materials Decisions

宋宏剛(Horng-Gang Soong)

指導教授 ： 顏上堯

國立中央大學/工學院/土木工程學系碩士在職專班/碩士(2006年)

摘要

台灣位於亞熱帶西太平洋颱風路經要衝，境內河川流短坡陡流速湍急，因此經常發生風災、水災等天然災害。依經濟部水利署之統計，近十三年來天然災害平均年損失128億元。當重大天然災害發生時，不但造成人民生命財產重大的損失，且對國家的經濟發展造成負面的影響。為防範於未然，減少人民生命財產之損失，河川管理辦法規定河川管理機關應沿河川兩岸之適當地點設置防汛搶險器材儲藏所，以為緊急搶險之用。「搶險」是指臨時應急所為之措施，即指天然災害致使水利設施發生損壞或已發生險象，為防止損壞險象擴大所作之緊急搶救措施。以往防汛搶險器材之調派常以人工經驗為之，但經驗調派卻缺乏系統最佳化分析，故決策雖可行，但並非最佳及最有效率之決策。緣此，本研究針對實務上考量防汛搶險器材之稀少性及材料運送之急迫性，構建一防汛搶險器材調派之模式，幫助決策者於最短時間內決定最有效率的搶險器材調派排程問題。
本研究利用時空網路流動技巧，分別構建搶險車流時空網路及搶險器材物流時空網路。在物流時空網路中依材料性質之不同，以多重時空網路構建多重搶險器材之物流網路，以每一種搶險器材對應一層時空網路，並以每一搶險器材時空網路與車流時空網路相對應。在此二網路的設計上，本研究以整數流動方式定式卡車與物流於時空中的排程，再於此二網路流動間加上實務之限制，以符合實際的搶險器材載運作業方式。本模式定式為一混合整數多重貨物網路流動問題，由於此模式之規模甚大，在短時間內難以求得最佳解，故本研究利用C程式語言配合數學規劃軟體，建立有效且彈性的方法求解問題。最後本研究以經濟部水利署第十河川局轄區之防汛搶險器材儲藏所實際資料為例，合理假設災害發生情形，進行範例測試與分析，並比較本研究模式與人工經驗指派方式之效益，結果顯示成效良好，進而提出結論與建議。

關鍵字

搶險 ； 防汛搶險 ； 儲藏所 ； 時空網路 ； 多重貨物網路流動問題 ； 排程

並列摘要

Taiwan is frequently hit by natural disasters such as typhoons and seasonal floods due to the fact that it is located right on the pathway of typhoons from the western Pacific Ocean and that all its rivers are relatively short and steep, incapable of containing torrential rain. According to the statistics by the Water Resource Agency, the average annual loss caused by natural disasters reached NT$12.8 billion in the past 13 years. Natural disasters not only result in the loss and damage of human lives and properties but also make negative impact on the national economic development. To reduce the loss and damage of human lives and properties, the Regulations on River Management stipulate that, in order to meet the needs in a flooding emergency, river management agencies must set up warehouse on appropriate sites along the river to store flood control and flooding emergency equipments and materials. “Flooding emergency” refers to measures taken to stop the situation from worsening as soon as flood control facilities have been damaged. In the past, how to allocate and transport the flood control and flooding emergency materials was decided pragmatically by people, which lacked optimal systematic analysis. Even though the strategy could handle the situation, it did not achieve the optimal effect. Accordingly, given the scarcity of the materials and the urgency of transporting them, this study aims to build a model of allocating and transporting the flood control and flooding emergency materials so that the policy makers can optimize the routing within the shortest period of time.

We will employ network flow techniques including both time-space network of emergency transportation flow and that of flooding emergency materials flow. Depending on the different essences of flooding emergency materials, the multiple time-space networks include various time-space network of transportation flow which specifically corresponds to the time-space network of each different emergency material flow. A formula has been developed to arrange the routing of truck flow and material flow; nevertheless, the routing is also simultaneously modified by the practical operational procedures. Fundamentally, the model deals with multiple layers of networks matching transportation flows with various material flows. The model expectedly formulated as a mixed integer multiple commodity network flow problem. Since the problem size is expected to huge, we will develop a algorithm, which employs C computer language with the assistance of a mathematical programming solver, to solve the problem. To evaluate the model and the solution algorithm, we will perform a case study using the data collected from the warehouses storing flood control and flooding emergency materials by the 10th River Management Bureau, Water Resource Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs, the result shows that the effectiveness achieved by applying the model is better than that by pragmatic decisions. Finally, the conclusions and suggestions will be given.

並列關鍵字

routing ； flooding emergency ； multiple commodity network flow problem ； time-space network ； warehouse ； flood control and flooding emergency

參考文獻

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