不精確資訊下震災路網搶修排程與民眾對搶修時間可忍受度之研究

Network repairing construction routing and people’s toleration for repair time under uncertain information after earthquake

王福聖(Fu-Sheng Wang)

指導教授 ： 陳惠國

國立中央大學/工學院/土木工程學系/碩士(2008年)

摘要

強震發生後，往往對災區造成相當大的破壞，災區居民常陷入孤立無援的困境，亟需外界給予支援與救助，因此在地震發生後，道路「緊急搶修」為搶修單位第一考量的事項，然而在聯外道路系統中斷的情形下，民眾可忍受之道路搶修完工時間一定很短，但究竟有多「短」，其帶有模糊性。而縮短道路緊急搶修完工時間，一直為搶修單位震後努力的目標，在進行緊急搶修時，搶修時間常受到許多因素的影響，造成搶修時間的不確定。而本研究希望能以民眾和搶修單位兩種不同的角度，建立「民眾對緊急搶修時間之可忍受度」，並探討總搶修完工時間是否過長、搶修單位數量是否足夠，以供搶修單位之參考。
針對上述「民眾對搶修時間可忍受度」的問題，本研究首先利用主觀認知的本質模糊性，進行民眾可忍受搶修完工時間的問卷調查，並利用模糊統計法分析問卷，產生民眾可忍受搶修完工時間之模糊數。同時也建構因搶修資訊不確定之緊急搶修模糊多場站車輛途程模型，利用演算法進行範例測試，並求解實際路網之例題，進而得到實際路網所有災點完工時間之模糊數。利用上述兩種模糊數的結果，本研究將建構民眾對搶修單位緊急搶修完工時間之可忍受度，並於後續提出結論與建議。

關鍵字

緊急搶修時間 ； 可忍受度 ； 模糊數 ； 模糊多場站車輛途程

並列摘要

Major earthquakes often caused a high degree of damages. People who are in a disaster area are often isolated and needs other’s aid. Emergency rehabilitation is an important affair after an earthquake. Therefore, people tolerated the time of repair must be short in a condition which is the crucial road networks and transportation systems are damaged. But how much time is it which involved fuzzy concept. Emergency managers hope to repair the crucial road networks and transportation systems as fast as possible. Troops repaired a disaster which is often affected by some factors. The factors are caused repair time becoming uncertain. The research is hoped to the point of view to people and emergency managers, to construct “peoples’ toleration for repair time of the roads’’. And then the research discussed whether repair time is long, troops whether enough, the information hoped to be beneficial to emergency managers.
According to above-mentioned which is the peoples’ toleration for repair time of the problem, the research used intrinsic fuzziness to deal with the questionnaire for the people tolerated the repaired time. And then used to fuzzy statistic to analyze the questionnaire, and constructed the fuzzy number of people tolerated the repaired time. Simultaneously, the research is constructed the model of multiple depot fuzzy repair vehicle routing, which considers uncertain information. The research also applied a heuristic algorithm to solve the problem, and examined real applications. And then obtaining the fuzzy number of finished time in the real applications. According to above-mentioned the outcome of fuzzy number, the research is constructed peoples’ toleration for repair time of the roads. Finally, the research is discussed the conclusion and suggestion.

並列關鍵字

Fuzzy Multiple Depot Vehicle Routing ； Repair Time ； Toleration ； Fuzzy Number

參考文獻

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