利用複雜理論探討劇烈性變革之突現循環性 ─ 以台灣便利商店之演化路徑為例

Emergency of radical change though complexity theory -evolutionary path of convenience store in Taiwan

陳姿尹(Chi-ing Chen)

指導教授 ： 洪秀婉

國立中央大學/管理學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2008年)

摘要

便利商店引進台灣導致零售產業發生劇烈性變革，消費者對於便利性之需求透過系統性的營運模式，改變台灣零售產業結構與消費者的消費行為。然而，在現存的變革理論中，對於劇烈性變革產生之發展理解為不在預期中之戲劇性躍進，並無法解釋本研究所觀察的現象。

本研究利用複雜科學觀點觀察台灣便利商店產業的發展演進過程，並運用複雜理論的四個特性如初始值、遠離均衡、擴大效果以及碎形模式，來說明其劇烈性變革之突現的循環過程。劇烈性變革之結果透過複雜系統循環演進回到初始值的建立，之後則是在非均衡的狀態下為系統帶來資訊與能量，使得複雜系統在不穩定的狀況下藉由主體之間緊密的連結性以及正向與負向回饋，重新合併共同演化最後回到初始值的建立產生一種新的形式。有別於以往的研究，本研究企圖觀察台灣便利商店產業的演進過程，藉由消費者便利性需求不斷地重複製造循環，在整體環境變遷與業態競爭下持續吸收外在資訊與技術的創新之下，帶領台灣便利商店產業開創新的流通事業並且改變消費者之消費行為，產生劇烈性變革。

本研究提出四個主要的研究結果：第一，劇烈性變化是非計畫的、突現的與緩慢的；第二，不穩定的條件下有助於微小變化的突現以及變成劇烈性；第三，隨後的行動擴大最初始的微小變化；第四，微小變化、擴大行動以及前後脈絡之交互作用產生新的模式，甚至在自我相似的模式中發展出劇烈性變革為連續性之現象。因此，上述結果可說明便利商店產業在複雜系統下，產生劇烈性變革之突現，且延續突現模式不斷地循環劇烈性變化出現。

關鍵字

統一超商 ； 複雜理論 ； 劇烈性變革 ； 便利商店

並列摘要

A decision to introduce convenience stores to markets in Taiwan led to a radical change to the retail business. The industry structure and consumer behaviors of the general public change correspondingly. This is as a result of convenience needed by consumers via systematic business model. However, in currently existing empirical studies, cyclic development from a miniscule change to a radical revolution cannot be explained. In addition, these empirical studies cannot fully explain observations made in our laboratory.

In this research, we use the perspective of complexity science to observe the evolutionary process of convenience stores in Taiwan. In addition, we apply four major concept of complexity theory: initiating condition, the far-from- equilibrium, deviation amplification and fractals and scalability to illustrate the emergence of radical change. Through an adaptive complexity system, initiating conditions are continuously rebuilt. Systems which are not in an equilibrium state are accepting more new information and energy. While in an unstable condition, systems are in a repetitive cycle of merging and splitting with the tightly coupled agents, and are more likely to be amplified by one another through feedback loop. Consequently, the process returns to the initiating conditions and a new pattern is built In our study, we observe the evolutionary process of the development of convenient stores in Taiwan. Convenient stores in Taiwan are absorbing new information and technologies and are adapting to consumers’ continuous needs for convenience, competitions among industrial peers, and changes in the business environment. Consequently, convenient stores experience a radical change in an evolutionary cycle and, hence, brings a new form of enterprise and consumer behaviors.

Our study offers four key findings. First, the radical change is unintended, emergent, and slow. Second, destabilizing conditions help manicure changes to emerge and become radical. Third, subsequent actions amplify an initial minuscule change and, though not intended to do so, promote radical changes. Finally, the dynamic interaction among amplifying actions, contextual conditions, and small changes input leads to radical changes. Though self-similar pattern, it develops continuous radical change.

並列關鍵字

cvs ； complexity theory ； radical change

參考文獻

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