貿易自由化對中國對外出口之影響

The effect of trade liberalization on Chinese export trade

李斯媛(Si-yuan Li)

指導教授 ： 楊志海

國立中央大學/管理學院/經濟學系/碩士(2015年)

摘要

本文以引力模型及panel data模型估計1992-2009年間，中國採取的貿易自由化措施——加入世界貿易組織(World Trade Organization, WTO)，簽訂自由貿易協定(Free Trade Agreement, FTA)，給中國對外貿易帶來的影響。除了估算出口總體效果外，在全球生產分工趨勢的考量下，將產品依照生產階段劃分為原物料、中間材及最終材，分別估算三種財貨所受的影響。
WTO對中國的總體出口、中間財出口和最終材出口，具有正向且顯著的效果。FTA的影響效果則不確定，可能與簽約國家數目少且貿易量亦低有關。模型對中國原物料出口的估計結果顯示，無論是WTO還是FTA，對原物料出口都表現出負向的效果，此係因中國經濟成長力道強而帶動國內原物量需求大增所致。

關鍵字

貿易自由化 ； 中國 ； 出口 ； WTO ； FTA ； 引力模型

並列摘要

In this article, the gravity model and panel data model are used to examine how the trade liberalization measures took by Chinese goverment-being a member of WTO(World Trade Organization) and signing FTAs(Free Trade Agreement) influence Chinese export trade, based on a dataset of China and its 49 trade partners over the period of 1992-2009. In addition to estimating the effect on export trade of overall goods, export goods are divided to three types, primary, intermediate and final goods, and we also examine the effects on these three types of goods, effectively.
The estimated results from model illustrates these results. Joining WTO has a significantly positive effect on Chinese total, intermediate and final goods exports. However, the effect from signing FTA is uncertain. There are three probably main reasons, the number of countries signed FTA with China is very limited, it has not great export trade from China to these countries, the period of years China singing FTAs with other countries is not long enough, are the probably main reasons why the effect from singing FTAs is uncertain. Both joining WTO and signing FTAs have negative effects on Chinese primary goods export, according to the significantly increasing domestic demand for primary goods drived by Chinese strong economic growth.

並列關鍵字

trade liberalization ； China ； export ； WTO ； FTA ； gravity model

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