摘要
本文嘗試建立一個能捕捉台灣能源使用的動態隨機一般均衡模型以探討台灣最適的貨幣政策應該如何設計:央行應該釘住扣除物價波動較大成分的核心通貨膨脹率，或是總通貨膨脹率。為了較準確刻劃家計單位能源的使用，本文引入具有投資性質的耐久財消費進入模型中，同時也參考不同文獻的設定，將能源價格補貼的行為一同引入。分析的結果發現，於本文校準的台灣補貼水準下，釘住預期(前瞻式)核心通貨膨脹率的方式為最適的貨幣政策，呼應了台灣央行過去的貨幣政策。然而，於無補貼下，本文考慮的各種貨幣政策之福利水準皆無明顯的差異，這代表當政府讓國際油價完全轉嫁至國內使用者時，央行在選擇貨幣政策上將有更自由的空間。
並列摘要
We study the optimal monetary policy rule under a DSGE model that allows for energy and durable goods consumption.In addition to rigidity in the nominal prices of domestically produced goods,energy subsidy is considered as another source of price distortion. As a result,both the core and headline inflation rates are rigid.We calibrate our model to fit the Taiwanese economy.We find that Taylor rules that target on the core inflation are consistently better than those target on the headline inflation.In addition,forward-looking rules consistently generate higher welfare gains than rules that target on contemporaneous inflation.Without energy subsidy,the welfare differences between various monetary policies are negligible,which leave more room for the central bank to design its policy.