山崩潛感值暨降雨量與崩壞比之關係探討

The relationship among probability of failure, landslide susceptibility and rainfall

簡逢助(Feng-chu Chien)

指導教授 ： 李錫提

國立中央大學/地球科學學院/應用地質研究所/碩士(2015年)

摘要

一個地區的山崩潛感值分布可利用多年期的山崩目錄資料及地形、地質、地文及區位資料以統計方法求得。若無多年期山崩目錄也可以由事件型山崩目錄再加上促崩因子訓練求得，稱為事件型山崩潛感模型。此山崩潛感模型若只代入一般因子而不代入促崩因子則可反應該地區的基本山崩潛感特性，稱為事件獨立型山崩潛感值模型，可用來繪製基礎山崩潛感圖。一個地區由不同事件求得的事件獨立型山崩潛感模型是否會很接近而能代表該地區各點間山坡穩定度的相對大小？是本研究探討的一項重點。
本研究在濁水溪流域的高山區部分選取四個不同降雨事件的山崩目錄及降雨量分布建立四個單一事件和一個組合事件的山崩潛感模型。比較其山崩潛感分布可印證不同事件建立的事件獨立型山崩潛感值具有極為相近的分布，且基礎山崩潛感圖與利用多期山崩目錄所建立的歷年山崩潛感圖之間也有著類似的趨勢。確定一個流域的基礎山崩潛感圖之後，便能分析四個事件之崩壞比與降雨量及山崩潛感值之間的關係。

關鍵字

山崩潛感值 ； 崩壞比 ； 降雨誘發

並列摘要

Regional landslide susceptibility is commonly predicted via a statistical approach based on multi-temporal landslide inventories and environmental factors. If multi-temporal landslide inventories are not available, we could use an event-based landslide inventory and triggering factors to build an event-based susceptibility model. If we extract the triggering factor from the model, then the model can represent the basic susceptibility of the region, we call it event-independent susceptibility model. It is a key issue to find out whether different event-independent susceptibility models for the same region are similar in pattern.
In the present study, we chose four event-landslide inventories to build four single-event susceptibility models and one combine event model. It is confirmed that different event-independent susceptibility models for the same region are similar in pattern. This basic landslide susceptibility map is also similar with the susceptibility map build by multi-temporal landslide inventories. After establishing a regional basic landslide susceptibility model, we could analysis the relationship among probability of failure, landslide susceptibility and rainfall.

並列關鍵字

landslide susceptibility ； probability of failure ； rainfall induced

參考文獻

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