In this paper, the FEM simulation model of cold rotary forging is established under Deform-3D software environment. the upper die motion path is a planetary and spiral on cold rotary forging of a spur bevel gear. Using the Box-Behnken design of experiment, through the regression analysis to build a prediction model of second-order polynomial function. Regression analysis simulation result to obtain gears at the optimization in minimum equivalent strain coefficient of variance and good filling rate.As a result, the prediction model of quality characteristics is accurate. A preliminary study showed the best result that planetary better than spiral.