以德菲法及層級分析法探討軌道運輸業之供應商評選研究–以T公司為例

The Research of Railway Supplier Selection Model by the Delphi and Analytic Hierarchy Process- The case of T Company

范綱誠(Kang-Cheng Fan)

指導教授 ： 葉英傑

國立中央大學/管理學院/工業管理研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2014年)

摘要

由於受到能源不斷減少，地球環境因各國工業化影響，氣候產生劇烈變化，政府開始發展軌道產業，建設軌道運輸基礎設施，因應未來世界能源不確定變化，以及減少二氧化碳排放，然而台灣開始建設軌道基礎，礙於過去市場需求侷限，以致於產業技術及供應鏈皆無法支援大規模興建計劃，僅透過國外軌道製造商或是軌道顧問公司協助，供應技術及設備協助台灣建設軌道運輸系統。
因BOT或是由台灣各地方政府所建設之軌道基礎開始營運後，陸續所使用設備逐漸到了維修保養屆期，必須進行更換消耗零件，尤其以軌道車輛維修費用金額最為龐大，但受限獨家供應商源限制，採購成本始終無法減低，鐵路運輸公司為解決商源之窘境，積極開始進行替代性產品開發作業，惟遴選供應商上，因未周全考量，常造成供應商開發失敗，導致成本上的損失。
本研究為軌道運輸業之供應商評選研究以T公司為例，探討該公司進行開發軌道車輛所用集電弓零組件過程中，試圖找尋影響供應商評選因子。本研究利用德菲法方式邀請專家調查影響供應商因子之項目，再利用層級分析法分析及統計影響供應商因子之權重，統計各項指標結果，以解決現行鐵路運輸公司因委託不適合廠商開發物料，而導致開發失敗之問題︰
1.減低開發失敗風險，統計指標結果以便於決策者可以快速做決定。
2.本文探討分析法，俾利未來應用於其他零組件開發上之問題。

關鍵字

德菲法 ； 層級分析法 ； 軌道運輸

並列摘要

Due to energy decreasing and industrialized countries are polluting the global environment causing the climate dramatic changes, the government thus began to develop rail industry and construct the rail transport infrastructure to reduce using in the energy, carbon dioxide emissions, and the impact on the global environment. However, Taiwan began to build rail infrastructure , due to the limitations of past market demand resulting in industrial technology and supply chain unable to support large-scale construction project, only through the assistance of foreign track manufacturers or track consultants to provide technical and equipment to help Taiwan build rail transport system.

After the commencement of operation of the track built up through BOT or by Taiwan local government, the equipment gradually needs to be maintained, and the consumable parts must be replaced. Particularly in the rail project, vehicle parts are in enormous quantities and the procurement cost is hard to be reduced due to the limitation of sole supplier. In order to solve the problem of a deficient supplier source, the railway company to, began to develop alternative products. Nevertheless, due to the selection of suppliers lacks of a thorough consideration, the result of supplier development often fails that leads to a loss.

Therefore, this study will explore the impact factor of supplier selected by the railway transport operations for an alternative product development, and take the example of the pantograph components used in rail vehicles. Invite experts to investigate the factors that influence supplier through Delphi method and then use the right vendor analysis and statistical factors influence weight of AHP, statistical results of the indicators, intended to solve the existing problems faced by the railway company in the selection of suppliers︰

1.To reduce development risk of failure and the results of statistical indicators can facilitate the decision-makers quickly making a decision.
2.This paper discusses the analysis method used in the future to serve Lee issues on the development of other components.

並列關鍵字

Delphi method ； AHP ； rail transport

參考文獻

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