亞洲國家石油消費之實證研究

An Empirical Analysis of Oil Consumption in Asian Countries

盧筱穎(Hsiao-ying Lu)

指導教授 ： 朱雲鵬

國立中央大學/管理學院/經濟學系/碩士(2011年)

摘要

近年來中東地區局勢不定，常有紛爭，國際原油價格也隨著產油國的政局動盪上下波動，甚至屢創新高。有鑑於石油耗盡的可能性逐漸升高，加上世界各國環保意識的抬頭，許多國家開始投入替代能源的開發技術，希望能夠減少石油的消耗。然而，屢攀新高的石油價格是否減少了石油的消費量，或是隨著各國經濟成長快速，反而增加了石油的消耗，即為本研究探討的重點。
本文以亞洲五個國家－中國、印度、台灣、南韓及日本為研究對象，資料選取期間為1985年至2009年，利用石油消費量、實質石油價格以及實質國內生產毛額的年資料，採取ARDL（Autoregressive Distributed Lag）自我迴歸落後模型，估計各國的能源消費和經濟成長之間的因果關係，以及對石油的價格彈性及所得彈性。
實證結果發現，中國、印度、台灣、南韓和日本的經濟成長不管是長期或是短期，都對能源消費有單向因果關係，而只有在短期時，中國、台灣、南韓和日本的能源消費對經濟成長有單向因果關係，至於印度在短期和長期的能源消費對對經濟成長都不會有因果關係。另外，在價格彈性方面，只有印度、南韓和日本的結果是顯著的，分別為-0.2522、-0.5079和-0.2602，但是中國和台灣的價格彈性是不顯著的；至於所得彈性，五個國家的估計結果皆是顯著的，其中以日本的0.6486最低，再來是中國的0.7065，南韓0.8842，台灣0.9372，以印度的0.9691為最高。表示近二十五年來，日本使用能源的效率最好，而印度和台灣的效率最低。

關鍵字

石油消費 ； ARDL模型 ； 經濟成長 ； Granger causality test因果關係檢定 ； 所得彈性

並列摘要

Oil consumption is an important topic for the whole world. The goal of this study is to examine the causality between oil consumption and economic growth, and estimate the long-run price elasticity and income elasticity for five countries in Asian region, China, India, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. We use ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag)model and Granger causality test to find the interrelationship among oil consumption, real oil price and real Gross Domestic Product over the period 1985-2009.
The empirical results indicate that the long-run price elasticity of oil in India, South Korea and Japan is -0.2522, -0.5079 and -0.2602 respectively and long-run income elasticity of oil in Japan is 0.6486, followed by 0.7065 in China, 0.8842 in South Korea, 0.9372 in Taiwan and 0.9691 in India. There also exists unidirectional short-run and long-run causality running from economic growth to oil consumption in China, India, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan and only unidirectional short-run causality running from oil consumption to economic growth in China, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. This finding supports the view that the income elasticity for Asian countries is higher than the income elasticity for OECD countries, like Japan. In addition, the oil consumption is found to have positive effects on the economy. This is because the enormous use of oil in sectors like the industry may have directly pushed the economy.

並列關鍵字

Granger causality test ； income elasticity ； ARDL ； oil consumption ； economic growth

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