金融海嘯前後台灣本國銀行之獲利與成長能力動態分析

The dynamic relationship between asset growth and profitability of the Taiwan’s banks before and after the 2008 financial crisis

趙家慶(Ka-Heng Chio)

指導教授 ： 楊曉文

國立中央大學/管理學院/財務金融學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

2008年所發生的金融海嘯，不僅對全球的金融業帶來了巨大的負面衝擊，同時也令全球經濟陷入一片陰霾之中。本文以1993-2010年的台灣本國銀行的資料，並透過2008年的金融海嘯作為分界點，分析台灣本國銀行在金融海嘯前後的成長與獲利能力的動態因果關係。研究結果如下:
(1)本國整體銀行成長與獲利的動態關係受到金融海嘯的影響而出現改變，由金融海嘯前的成長與獲利互相影響的動態關係轉變為金融海嘯後的只有前一期獲利會影響當期成長的單一動態關係。
(2)就大、小型銀行而言，在金融海嘯前，大型銀行的獲利與成長不具動態因果關係，而小型銀行只存在獲利影響成長的單一動態；但在金融海嘯後，大型銀行的獲利會影響成長，而小型銀行則變成無動態關係存在。

關鍵字

GMM ； 金融海嘯 ； 獲利能力 ； 資產成長

並列摘要

The 2008 financial crisis not only had large negative impacts on financial service industry, but also caused the recession all over the world. This study investigates the dynamic relationship between asset growth and profitability of the Taiwan’s banking industry before and after the 2008 financial crisis. Using the data from 1993 to 2010, the findings are as follows:
(1) The dynamic relationship between asset growth and profitability significantly exists for all banks before the 2008 financial crisis. After the crisis, only profitability will dynamically affect asset growth.
(2) Based on the classification of large banks and small banks, the large banks doesn’t have any dynamic relationship between asset growth and profitability, and the lagged profit of small banks will affect asset growth before the financial crisis. After the financial crisis, the result becomes that the profit of large banks can significantly and dynamically affect asset growth and there is no dynamic relationship between asset growth and profitability for the small banks.

並列關鍵字

financial crisis ； GMM ； asset growth ； profitability

參考文獻

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