機車隨機到達情況下紅燈怠速熄火效果之研究

A Study on the Effect of Idling Stop of Motorcycle on Red under Random Arrival

簡廷偉(Ting-wei Chien)

指導教授 ： 吳健生

國立中央大學/工學院/土木工程學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

台灣地區機車總量不斷攀升，相對廢氣排放量亦日漸增加，適逢國內對於交通號誌紅燈倒數計時器逐步推廣建置之同時，基於全球暖化議題，交通環境政策之制定實應進一步探討生活科技對於降低環境傷害，提供更舒適、更為永續之環境給予下一代。
本研究以到達時間分配積分方式應用於機車隨機到達情況下紅燈怠速熄火效果之研究，透過實際路口調查，路口資料分析，對機車到達時間分配配適，配適結果晨峰時段為韋伯分配加上常態分配；離峰時段與昏峰時段皆為韋伯分配。並以到達時間分配推導熄火公式計算現況下實際熄火時間。
將實際熄火時間結合Cox等比例危險模式，發現解釋變數中「節能減碳」、「油價上漲」、「依從熄火意願」、「立法規範熄火意願」、「教育程度」等5個解釋變數確實會影響機車騎士紅燈怠速熄火意願，並透過存活函數相對風險概念及判斷中位存活時間，可以觀察出解釋變數改變帶來的熄火時間增加效益，將增加的效益與實際熄火時間結合推估出可預期的熄火時間。將熄火時間轉為溫室氣體CO2 、CH4、N2O排放量，評估節能減碳效益。

關鍵字

到達時間分配 ； Cox等比例危險模式 ； 怠速熄火 ； 節能減碳

並列摘要

The total amount of motorcycles increased continuously as well as the emissions of pollution. Under the issue of global warming, the development of traffic and environmental policies should be further investigated into life science and technology while the installation of Traffic Signal Countdown Displays, in order to reduce environmental harm, to provide a more comfortable and sustainable environment to the next generation.
Using the fashion of assignment of arrival time application on the effect of idling stop of motorcycle on red under random arrival.Through the actual intersection investigated and intersection data analysis. The distribution fit results show that the period of morning peak are weibull distribution with normal distribution ,and the period of off-peak are weibull distribution, and the period of faint peak are weibull distribution. Using the mode of idling stop to calculate the idling stop time(IST) .
Combine the idling stop time and Cox proportional hazard model ,we can know the result that motorcyclists’ behavior of idling stop on red is significantly influenced by five variables: "the carbon reduction"、" the rising oil prices "、" the idling stop with another "、" the legislative norms idling stop "and" the level of education ". Combination will increase the effectiveness and the idling stop time to estimate the expected idling stop time. we can calculate the increase of idling stop time with the variable of Greenhouse gases,the exhaust pollutant can be reduced in CO2、CH4、N2O per year.

並列關鍵字

assignment of arrival time ； Cox proportional hazard model ； idling stop ； carbon reduction

參考文獻

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